Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are ...

Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The famili...

There has been a dramatic increase over the past decade in the number of firms that source finished product from overseas. While this has reduced procurement costs, it has increased supply risk; procurement lead times are longer and are often unreliable. In deciding when and how much to order, firms must consider the lead time risk and the demand risk, i.e., the accuracy of their demand forecas...

We present a forecast-based adaptive management framework for water supply reservoirs and evaluate the contribution of long-term inflow forecasts to reservoir operations. Our framework is developed for snow-dominated river basins that demonstrate large gaps in forecast skill between seasonal and inter-annual time horizons. We quantify and bound the contribution of seasonal and inter-annual fore...

The premise of this work is the development and application of a new methodology to forecast production data in unconventional reservoirs where variable rate and pressure drop data are typically observed throughout production. Decline curve analysis techniques for the estimation of ultimate recovery (EUR) require the constant bottomhole pressure condition during the producing life of the well —...

This paper discusses general facts about energy policies and analyzes their relationship to the quality of life in Russia. Aspects of the sustainability and exploitation of energy sources in Russia are also discussed. The aims of Russia’s energy policy are the efficient use of natural energy resources, the increase in the potential of the energy sector allowing sustainable economic growth, the ...

A number of previous studies have shown that a combination of forecasts typically outperforms any component forecast. Service managers may wish to use forecast combination to improve forecast accuracy in predicting retail sales. In this study, revenue data from an actual service company is used to generate and test a least absolute value (LAV) regression model for forecast combination. The LAV ...

This paper describes the operational implementation of the data assimilation scheme for the Mediterranean Forecasting System Pilot Project (MFSPP). The assimilation scheme, System for Ocean Forecast and Analysis (SOFA), is a reduced order Optimal Interpolation (OI) scheme. The order reduction is achieved by projection of the state vector into vertical Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF). The d...