W conducted prediction markets designed to forecast post-initial public offering (IPO) valuations before a particularly unique IPO: Google. The prediction markets forecast Google’s post-IPO market capitalization relatively accurately. While Google’s auction-based IPO price was 15.3% below the first-day closing market capitalization, the final prediction market forecast was only 4.0% above it. T...

Using data from 1990-2013, we show 1) the serial correlation of analyst forecast errors increases in the extent of international diversification, 2) PEAD based on analyst forecast errors increases in the extent of international diversification, and 3) the impact of international diversification on the serial correlation of analyst forecast errors and the associated drift is significantly reduce...

The authors surveyed the automotive and consumer electronics industries in North America and Japan between 1997 and 2001, and report that assembly manufacturers in these industries placed orders in week N-2 for production in week N. However, the order is supported by the 12-week rolling forecast, and more especially by the 4-week forecast, which is sent in month N-1 for the production of month ...

During the past few years, the market for organic food has been experiencing rapid growth. However, the market demand for organic food typically fluctuates due to its seasonal nature and customized characteristics, and it remains fairly difficult to precisely forecast market demand prior to the selling season. Forecast bias usually creates inefficiency in an organic food producer’s production p...

A predictability framework, based on relative entropy, is applied here to low-frequency variability in a standard T21 barotropic model on the sphere with realistic orography. Two types of realistic climatology, corresponding to different heights in the troposphere, are used. The two dynamical regimes with different mixing properties, induced by the two types of climate, allow the testing of the...

Data mining techniques are frequently used to extract the disease related factors from the huge datasets. Data mining is the task of discovering formerly unknown, appropriate patterns and relationships in huge datasets. Generally, each data mining task differs in the type of knowledge it extracts and the kind of data demonstration it uses to convey the discovered information. Forecasting is a p...

4 Any decision making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily 5 requires a calibrated forecast. This paper proposes new methods for empirically assessing 6 forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where the probabilistic forecast is given by an 7 ensemble of equally probable forecast scenarios. Multivariate properties are mapped to a single 8 dimension...

Our social skills are critically determined by our ability to understand and appropriately respond to actions performed by others. However despite its obvious importance, the mechanisms enabling action understanding in humans have remained largely unclear. A popular but controversial belief is that parts of the motor system contribute to our ability to understand observed actions. Here, using a...

A virtual-reality batting task compared novice and expert baseball players' ability to predict the outcomes of their swings as well as the susceptibility of these outcome predictions to hindsight bias--a measure of strength and resistance to distortion of memory for predicted action outcomes. During each swing the simulation stopped when the bat met the ball. Batters marked where on the field t...