The problem of portfolio risk estimation in volatile markets requires employing fat-tailed models for financial instrument returns combined with copula functions to capture asymmetries in dependence and a true downside risk measure for risk estimation. In this survey, we discuss how these three essential components can be combined together in a Monte Carlo based framework for risk estimation an...

We study the coordination of supply chains with a risk-neutral supplier and a risk-averse retailer. Different from the downside risk setting, in a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) framework, we show that the supply chain can be coordinated with the revenue-sharing, buy-back, two-part tariff and quantity flexibility contracts. Furthermore the revenuesharing contracts are still equivalent to the ...

Often, construction projects fail to achieve their time, budget, and quality goals. This is frequently due to the failure of the contractor to analyze and assess unanticipated risks. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a new approach that can be used to analyze and assess project risks during the bidding stage of a construction project and to overcome the limitations of the traditional appr...

When dealing with market risk under the Basel II Accord, variation pays in the form of lower capital requirements and higher profits. Typically, GARCH type models are chosen to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a single risk model. In this paper we illustrate two useful variations to the standard mechanism for choosing forecasts, namely: (i) combining different forecast models for each period,...

background nephrolithiasis in children is an important cause of morbidity worldwide. the current retrospective study aims at identifying epidemiological characteristics and risk factors of nephrolithiasis among children under 18 years old attending at nephrology clinic of amir kabir hospital of arak, iran, in 2014. methods the current case-control study was conducted among 166 children in 2 equ...

objective febrile seizure is the most common problem in pediatric neurology that occurs in 3- 4 % of children. the purpose of this study was to determine febrile seizure recurrence frequency and to evaluate its risk factors. materials & methods in a descriptive prospective study, 139 children (6 months to 6 years) with first febrile seizure were admitted to yazd shaheed sadoughi hospital betwee...

introduction artificial and natural radionuclides are found in diverse environmental compartments, such as water, soil, rocks, vegetables, animals, and human body tissues. as such, humans and environments are at constant exposure of these radiation types. in this research investigated specific activities of radionuclide and dose assessment of some species of mushrooms. materials and methods in ...

a sensitivity analysis of the flood safety of solaimantangeh dam using a regional climate change simulation is presented. based on the output of the ccsm (community climate change system model) general circulation model, the nircm (north of iran regional climate model) computes regional scale output with 50 km spatial resolution and 21 vertical layers. using the sres (special report emission sc...

conclusions the results showed that the effect of several psychosocial, behavioral, and demographic risk factors on adolescents' smoking status. thus, design and implementation of interventions based on the results of the present study may be effective in preventing tobacco smoking among adolescents. patients and methods this cross-sectional study was performed on 810 male adolescents recruited...

vancomycin-resistant enterococci (vre) are becoming a major concern in medical practice. their increased prevalence and their ability to transfer vancomycin resistance to other bacteria have made them a subject of close scrutiny and intense investigation. colonization is usually acquired by susceptible hosts in an environment with a high rate of patient colonization with vre. the aim of this st...