Choosing the scope of a plan is a fundamental question for plan makers. This question arises both in explaining plan making we observe and in justifying plan making we recommend. We frame this question from the perspective of potential participants, from the bottom up, rather than from the perspective of creating a planning process by expert judgment about scope, from the top down, such as an a...

Natural extension is a powerful tool for combining the expert judgments in the framework of imprecise probability theory. However, it assumes that every judgment is “true” and this fact leads to some difficulties in many applications. Therefore, a second-order uncertainty model is considered in the paper where probabilities on the second-order level are taken by using the imprecise Dirichlet mo...

This paper demonstrates the use of dynamic fuzzy-reasoning-based function estimator (DFFE) to interpolate rainfall data in a case study in Switzerland. The functional parameters are also optimized by genetic algorithms (GA). The procedure operates on a series of overlapping partition surfaces around the study area based on expert knowledge and interpretive judgment. The procedure allows for spa...

The main objective of evidence-based management is to promote use of scientific data in the decision-making process of managers, with data either complementing or replacing expert knowledge. It is expected that this will increase the efficiency of environmental interventions. However, the relative accuracy and precision of evidence-based tools and expert knowledge has seldom been evaluated. It ...

In this paper we propose that the measurement of an audiences emotional response to the performance of a new musical instrument correlates with an expert judgment of liveness. An initial experiment has shown a strong positive correlation between the two, indicating that audiences who have a positive emotional response to a performance also consider the performance as being more ‘live’. Observat...

means by " expert" and " specialist," but such fundamental expressions as " reason," " subconscious mind," " judgment " and so forth, he leaves undefined. From the context in which Dr. Hankin employs the term " reason," one can assume that he is not concerned with any metaphysical concept of reason, but, nevertheless, it is not at all clear what he understands by this expression. Indeed, it wou...

Establishing reasonable, prior distributions remains a significant obstacle far the construction of probabilistic expert systems. Humon assessment of chance is often relied upon for this purpose, but this hos the drawback of being inconsistent with axioms of probability. This arficfe ndvonces o method for extracting o coherent distribution of probability from humon judgment. The method is based...

Conclusions  A model for building statistical dependence between marginal distribution with bounded support is discussed. The model is geared towards elicitation of dependence parameters through expert judgment. The resulting joint distribution may be useful in uncertainty analyses where dependence between random variables with a bounded support is present due to common risk factors, such as e...

This paper summarizes major achievements and challenges of software resource estimation over the last forty years. We address critical issues that enabled major achievements such as the development of good model forms, criteria for evaluating models, methods for integrating expert judgment and statistical data analysis, and processes for developing new models that cover new software development...