We study how total factor productivity (TFP), energy prices, and the Great Moderation are linked. First we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until the second quarter of 1982, energy prices negatively affected productivity. This spillover has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium ...

We generalise the Black-Litterman (BL) portfolio management framework to incorporate time-variation in the conditional distribution of returns in the asset allocation process. We evaluate the performance of the dynamic BL model using both standard performance ratios as well as other measures that are designed to capture tail risk in the presence of non-normally distributed asset returns. We fin...

This paper focuses on the performance of various GARCH models in terms of their ability of delivering volatility forecasts for stock return data. Volatility forecasts obtained from a variety of mean and variance specifications in GARCH models are compared to a proxy of actual volatility calculated using daily data. In-sample tests suggest that a regression of volatility estimates on actual vola...

This paper assesses the finite sample refinements of the block bootstrap and the Non-Parametric Bootstrap for conditional moment models. The study recononsiders inference in the generalized method of moments estimation of the consumption asset pricing model of Singleton (1986). These dependent bootstrap resampling schemes are proposed as an alternative to the asymptotic approximation in small s...

After reviewing the simulation performance of general-to-specific automatic regressionmodel selection, as embodied in PcGets, we show how model selection can be nondistortionary: approximately unbiased ‘selection estimates’ are derived, with reported standard errors close to the sampling standard deviations of the estimated DGP parameters, and a near-unbiased goodness-of-fit measure. The handli...

this paper evaluates the real exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainties resulting from it, in the iranian economy. for this purpose, at first indirect effect of real exchange rate uncertainties on economic growth through foreign investment, private investment and exports are expressed, then the real exchange rate uncertainties and its relationship with economic growth and final pattern of in...

There have been numerous attempts at the formation of regional policy groupings within Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). This paper analyses the similarities in macroeconomic policies pursued by member countries using realised correlation analysis on 26 LAC countries and observations covering the period 1970–2005. The study finds evidence of co-movement in monetary, fiscal, trade and capit...

In this chapter, we discuss the use of mixed frequency models and diffusion index approximation methods in the context of prediction. In particular, select recent specification and estimation methods are outlined, and an empirical illustration is provided wherein U.S. unemployment forecasts are constructed using both classical principal components based diffusion indexes as well as using a comb...

In this paper a Bayesian approach to unit root testing for panel data models is proposed based on the comparison of stationary autoregressive models with and without individual deterministic trends, with their counterpart models with a unit autoregressive root. This is done under cross-sectional dependence among the units of the panel. Simulation experiments are conducted with the aim to assess...

This note examines the stochastic properties of US term spreads with parametric and semiparametric fractional integration techniques. Since the observed data (rather than the estimated residuals from a cointegrating regression) are used for the analysis, standard methods can be applied. The results indicate that US Treasury maturity rates are I(1) in most cases, although the order of integratio...