El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on the European circulation features and on the regional climate of Hungary are evaluated in this paper. European climate is represented by atmospheric macrocirculation patterns (MCPs). Local climate characteristics are linked to ENSO phases through regionally averaged temperature values and precipitation amounts. Significant statistical relationshi...

an analysis of seasonal rainfall over iran for a period of 30 years (1971-2000) shows a significant variability in spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall as well as its frequency and intensity. in this paper, the likely effects of enso on the rainfall anomalies are investigated. the accumulated monthly and seasonal rainfalls from 43 synoptic stations are taken through the islamic republ...

Global climate anomalies affect world economies and primary commodity prices. One of the more pronounced climate anomalies is El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study I examine the relationship between ENSO and world commodity prices using monthly time series of the sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region, and real prices of thirty primary agricultural commodities. I ...

A suite of empirical model experiments under the empirical model reduction framework are conducted to advance the understanding of ENSO diversity, nonlinearity, seasonality, and the memory effect in the simulation and prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The model training and evaluation are carried out using 4000-yr preindustrial control simulation data from ...

Impacts of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), two different types of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki, on the year-to-year winter wheat yield variations in Australia have been investigated. It is found that IOD plays a dominant role in the recent three decades; the wheat yield is reduced (increased) by -28.4% (12.8%) in the positive (negative) IOD years. Although ...

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of Northern Hemisphere wintertime variability and, generally, the key ingredient used in seasonal forecasts of wintertime surface climate. Modeling studies have recently suggested that ENSO teleconnections might involve both a tropospheric pathway and a stratospheric one. Here, using reanalysis data, we carefully distinguish between the ...

The Normalized Di erence Vegetation Index (NDVI) is widely accepted as a good indicator for providing vegetation properties and associated changes for large scale geographic regions. Using multivariate time series data analysis methods based on Principal Component transform and Wavelet Decomposition, a sequence of 11-year monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived NDVI dat...

We present here quantitative evidence for an increased role of interannual climate variability on the temporal dynamics of an infectious disease. The evidence is based on time-series analyses of the relationship between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera prevalence in Bangladesh (formerly Bengal) during two different time periods. A strong and consistent signature of ENSO is appare...

In this study the behavior of a linear, intermediate model of ENSO is examined under stochastic forcing. The model was developed in a companion paper (Part I) and is derived from the Zebiak–Cane ENSO model. Four variants of the model are used whose stabilities range from slightly damped to moderately damped. Each model is run as a simulation while being perturbed by noise that is uncorrelated (...

[1] Biogeochemical responses to physical changes associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are studied for the period of 1990–2001 using a physical-biogeochemical model. During warm ENSO, the ferricline deepens in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, resulting in low biomass and low export production. Zooplankton and large phytoplankton are more depressed than sm...