Bayesian orthodoxy posits a tight relationship between conditional probability and updating. Namely, the probability of an event A after learning B should equal the conditional probability of A given B prior to learning B. We examine whether ordinary judgment conforms to the orthodox view. In three experiments we found substantial differences between the conditional probability of an event A su...

We investigate probability functions defined over many valued conditional events. During the last decade or so considerable research effort has been directed towards the understanding of what (subjective) conditional probability might look like in the context of many-valued logics. Given its centrality in the area, a particularly well-studied case is that of Lukasiewicz’s infinite-valued logic ...

暴雨强度公式在水文、气象、工程设计等各领域都是非常关注的问题,而常用降雨概率分布函数的适用性欠缺,理论分布函数一直处于争鸣之中。从逐时降雨概率密度函数的适用性分析入手,有利于发现普适且恰当的理论密度函数。本文从我国暴雨洪涝灾害易发区中沿30°N选取4个经纬度长方形区域(雅安附近、鄂西南、江汉平原南部、杭州湾西),并在其南、北各选一对比分区(海南岛、郑州),对6个分区内降雨资料直接采用全样本,统计逐时降雨的三类概率密度经验函数,对照这些函数的特性,从理论上分析了众多分布函数的适用性,筛选适用函数并进行拟合试验,优选出理论密度函数。研究结果表明:三参广义伽玛函数拟合误差最小,而两参广义正态函数更恰当、被首推为理论密度函数;拟合参数寻优时的目标函数综合了乘性与加性误差模型,能使拟合曲线兼顾头尾;本研究有别于极值降雨概率分布中仅采用极少部分样本的方法,采用降雨概率密度方法替代传统的年极值法,...

Abstract The aim of device-independent quantum key distribution (DIQKD) is to study protocols that allow the generation a secret shared between two parties under minimal assumptions on devices produce key. These are merely modeled as black boxes and mathematically described conditional probability distributions. A major obstacle in analysis DIQKD huge space possible box behaviors. De Finetti th...

Conditional independence provides an essential framework to deal with knowledge and uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, and is fundamental in probability and multivariate statistics. Its associated implication problem is paramount for building Bayesian networks. Unfortunately, the problem does not enjoy a finite ground axiomatization and is already coNP-complete to decide for restricted sub...