During the MaxEnt 2002 workshop in Moscow, Idaho, Tony Vignaux asked again a few simple questions about using Maximum Entropy or Bayesian approaches for the famous Dice problems which have been analyzed many times through this workshop and also in other places. Here, there is another analysis of these problems. I hope that, this paper will answer a few questions of Tony and other participants o...

Bayesian optimization techniques have been successfully applied to robotics, planning, sensor placement, recommendation, advertising, intelligent user interfaces and automatic algorithm configuration. Despite these successes, the approach is restricted to problems of moderate dimension, and several workshops on Bayesian optimization have identified its scaling to high dimensions as one of the h...

Humans and other animals behave as if we perform fast Bayesian inference underlying decisions and movement control given uncertain sense data. Here we show that a biophysically realistic model of the subthreshold membrane potential of a single neuron can exactly compute the numerator in Bayes rule for inferring the Poisson parameter of a sensory spike train. A simple network of spiking neurons ...

Though they address similar problems, the papers are different in important ways. Professor Cowan has provided an informative review of the problem, and its implications to high energy physics. It is surprising that such a simple problem is so perplexing. Professor Prosper writes as an advocate of the Bayesian approach and shows how it can be implemented. As far a foundations go, we applaud the...

In this paper, we describe results to model lateral and longitudinal control behavior of drivers with simple linear multiple regression models. This approach fits into the Bayesian Programming (BP) approach (Bessière, 2008) because the linear multiple regression model suggests an action selection strategy which is an alternative to the BP action selection strategies draw and best. Furthermore, ...

We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for deciphering complex substitution ciphers. Our method uses a decipherment model which combines information from letter n-gram language models as well as word dictionaries. Bayesian inference is performed on our model using an efficient sampling technique. We evaluate the quality of the Bayesian decipherment output on simple and homophonic letter substit...

This paper proposes a simple linear Bayesian approach to reinforcement learning. We show that with an appropriate basis, a Bayesian linear Gaussian model is sufficient for accurately estimating the system dynamics, and in particular when we allow for correlated noise. Policies are estimated by first sampling a transition model from the current posterior, and then performing approximate dynamic ...

We derive an exact and efficient Bayesian regression algorithm for piecewise constant functions of unknown segment number, boundary locations, and levels. The derivation works for any noise and segment level prior, e.g. Cauchy which can handle outliers. We derive simple but good estimates for the in-segment variance. We also propose a Bayesian regression curve as a better way of smoothing data ...

This paper explores the application of Bayesian probabilistic modeling to issues of music cognition and music theory. The main concern is with the problem of key-finding: the process of inferring the key from a pattern of notes. The Bayesian perspective leads to a simple, elegant, and highly effective model of this process; the same approach can also be extended to other aspects of music percep...