This paper provides a general technique for lower bounding the Bayes risk of statistical estimation, applicable to arbitrary loss functions and arbitrary prior distributions. A lower bound on the Bayes risk not only serves as a lower bound on the minimax risk, but also characterizes the fundamental limit of any estimator given the prior knowledge. Our bounds are based on the notion of f -inform...

In this research, an iterative approach is employed to recognize and classify control chart patterns. To do this, by taking new observations on the quality characteristic under consideration, the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of pattern parameters is first obtained and then the probability of each pattern is determined. Then using Bayes’ rule, probabilities are updated recursively. Finally, when...

We use differential geometry techniques to estimate the class probability P (y = l|x) for learning both binary and multiclass plug-in classifiers. We propose a geometric regularization technique to find the optimal submanifold corresponding to the estimator of P (y = l|x). The regularization term measures the volume of this submanifold, based on the intuition that overfitting produces fast osci...

The Rao-Blackwell theorem offers a procedure for converting a crude unbiased estimator of a parameter θ into a "better" one, in fact unique and optimal if the improvement is based on a minimal sufficient statistic that is complete. In contrast, behind every minimal sufficient statistic that is not complete, there is an improvable Rao-Blackwell improvement. This is illustrated via a simple examp...

A class of random hazard rates, that is defined as a mixture of an indicator kernel convoluted with a completely random measure, is of interest. We provide an explicit characterization of the posterior distribution of this mixture hazard rate model via a finite mixture of S-paths. A closed and tractable Bayes estimator for the hazard rate is derived to be a finite sum over S-paths. The path cha...

This study develops a Gaussian mixture rainfall-rate estimator (GMRE) for polarimetric radar-based rainfall-rate estimation, following a general framework based on the Gaussian mixture model and Bayes least squares estimation for weather radar–based parameter estimations. The advantages of GMRE are 1) it is a minimum variance unbiased estimator; 2) it is a general estimator applicable to differ...

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the mean vector of a singular multivariate normal distribution with an unknown singular covariance matrix. The maximum likelihood estimator is shown to be minimax relative to a quadratic loss weighted by the Moore-Penrose inverse of the covariance matrix. An unbiased risk estimator relative to the weighted quadratic loss is provided for a Baranchik...

We derive the asymptotic approximation for the posterior distribution when the data are multinomial and the prior is Dirichlet conditioned on satisfying a finite set of linear equality and inequality constraints so the posterior is also Dirichlet conditioned on satisfying these same constraints. When only equality constraints are imposed, the asymptotic approximation is normal. Otherwise it is ...