The paper analyses a simplified version of a Glosten-Milgrom style specialist security trading model with trade-timing. In a setting where traders are differentially informed, if the best-informed investors have a sufficiently strong or weak impact on prices then the investors with the strongest impact on prices delay their investment strategically, pretending to be the low-impact types. JEL Cl...

This paper aims at improved accuracy in testing for long-run predictability in noisy series, such as stock market returns. Long-horizon regressions have previously been the dominant approach in this area. We suggest an alternative method that yields more accurate results. We find evidence of predictability in S&P 500 returns even when the confidence intervals are constructed using model-free me...

This study investigates the effects of  macroeconomic variables and their role in development of foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange market is the mechanism by which a person of firm transfers purchasing power form one country to another, obtains or provides credit for international trade transactions, and minimizes exposure to foreign exchange risk. The foreign exchange transaction i...

While most research on hedging has focused on foreign currency exposures, analysis of jet fuel price exposure in the airline industry and the effects of both financial and operational hedging on this exposure provides valuable insights into risk management. Exposure and hedging in the airline industry is relatively straightforward compared to foreign exchange hedging by multinationals. We inves...

Previous attempts to analyze the effect of liability dollarization on “fear of floating” have focused exclusively on the role played by foreign liabilities. Liability dollarization of the domestic banking system, however, poses a similar risk as dollar-denominated deposits and credit impose a source of currency risk on domestic banks and firms respectively. Findings from a large cross-country s...

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine the composition of the debt as well as its level, and a variety of other macroeconomic factors, exte...

This study investigates the effects of  macroeconomic variables and their role in development of foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange market is the mechanism by which a person of firm transfers purchasing power form one country to another, obtains or provides credit for international trade transactions, and minimizes exposure to foreign exchange risk. The foreign exchange transaction i...

In a market with one safe and one risky asset, an investor with a long horizon, constant investment opportunities, and constant relative risk aversion trades with small proportional transaction costs. We derive explicit formulas for the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volume. At the first order, the liquidity premium equals the spread, times share ...

This study investigates the effects of  macroeconomic variables and their role in development of foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange market is the mechanism by which a person of firm transfers purchasing power form one country to another, obtains or provides credit for international trade transactions, and minimizes exposure to foreign exchange risk. The foreign exchange transaction i...