Climate models are generally calibrated manually by comparing selected climate statistics, such as the global top-of-atmosphere energy balance, to observations. The manual tuning only targets a limited subset of observational data and parameters. Bayesian calibration can estimate model parameters their uncertainty using larger fraction available automatically exploring parameter space more broa...

[1] This study shows that the surface buoyancy conditions in the Northern Hemisphere may influence the stratification and transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). We use a course-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM) in an idealized single-basin configuration with a circumpolar channel. A decrease in the magnitude of the surface temperature meridional gradient in the No...

Article history: Nd isotopic compositions o Received 19 November 2007 Received in revised form 20 May 2008 Accepted 21 May 2008 Available online 5 June 2008 Editor: H. Elderfield

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-var...

Four methods of downscaling daily rainfall sequences from general circulation model (GCM) simulations are intercompared over Senegal, using a 13-station network of daily observations during July–September 1961–98. The local scaling method calibrates raw GCM daily rainfall at the closest grid point to a given station so that the climatological distribution of rainfall matches the observed one. T...

A key disagreement exists between global climate model (GCM) simulations and satellite observations of the decadal variability in the tropical-mean radiation budget. Measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) over the period 1984–2001 indicate a trend of increasing longwave emission and decreasing shortwave reflection that no GCM can currently reproduce. Motivated by these r...

[1] A theory for the ocean-atmosphere partitioning of anthropogenic carbon dioxide on centennial timescales is presented. The partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 (PCO2) is related to the external CO2 input (DSC) at air-sea equilibrium by: PCO2 = 280 ppm exp(DSC/[IA + IO/R]), where IA, IO, and R are the pre-industrial values of the atmospheric CO2 inventory, the oceanic dissolved inorganic carbo...

Article history: The isotopic composition of Received 18 April 2008 Received in revised form 25 July 2008 Accepted 29 July 2008 Available online 7 September 2008 Editor: M.L. Delaney

Severe drought is a notable feature of the hydrology of Central Southwest (CSW) Asia. Although studies have linked the region’s interannual precipitation variability to remote forcings that include East Asia Jet Stream variability and Western Pacific tropical convection, atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperatures demonstrate little skill in simulat...