To inform theory and to investigate the practical application of prediction markets in a setting where the distribution of information across agents is critical, we conducted markets designed to forecast post-IPO valuations before a particularly unique IPO: Google. Because prediction markets allow us to infer the distribution of information before the IPO, the combination of results from our ma...

We study a matched sample of individual stock market forecasts consisting of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts. This allows us to test for the quality of forecast quantification methods by comparing quantified qualitative forecasts with actual quantitative forecasts. Focusing mainly on the widely used quantification framework advocated by Carlson and Parkin (1975), the so-called “prob...

We propose a new test for superior predictive ability. The new test compares favorable to the reality check for data snooping (RC), because the former is more powerful and less sensitive to poor and irrelevant alternatives. The improvements are achieved by two modifications of the RC. We employ a studentized test statistic that reduces the influence of erratic forecasts and we invoke a sample d...

This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence linking insample tests of predictive content and out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Our approach focuses on the negative effect that finite-sample estimation error has on forecast accuracy despite the presence of significant population-level predictive content. Specifically, we derive simple-to-use in-sample tests that test not o...

We investigate the econometric properties of the Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts with an integrated real-time database of U.S. macroeconomic data that more precisely characterizes the information sets available to Fed policy makers in advance of the Open Market Committee meetings. Our data set associates historical vintages of NIPA and labor market data with the exact dates of the Greenbook...

This paper identifies two channels through which the economy can generate endogenous inflation and output volatility, an empirical regularity, by introducing model uncertainty into a Lucas-type monetary model. The equilibrium path of inflation depends on agents’ expectations and a vector of exogenous random variables. Following Branch and Evans (2006a) agents are assumed to underparameterize th...

This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West’s (2006) survey as a starting point, we brie‡y cover the state of the literature as of the time of West’s writing. We then focus on recent developments, including advancements in the evaluation of forecasts at the population level (based on true, unknown model coe¢ cients), the evaluation of forecasts in th...

One of the most significant factors influencing the liquidity of the financial market is the amount of currency in circulation. Although the central bank is responsible for the distribution of the currency it cannot assess the demand for the currency, as that demand is influenced by the non-banking sector. Therefore, the amount of currency in circulation has to be forecasted. This paper introdu...

This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to predictions from nested long-horizon regression models. We first derive the asymptotic distributions of a set of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing, showing that the tests have non-standard distributions that depend on the parameters of the data-generati...