Abstract The use of artificial neural networks as a tool to forecast droughts in Sri Lanka is presented. Predictions were made using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as the drought monitoring index. Monthly rainfall recorded at 13 climatological stations covering both the wet and dry zones over a long time period have been used as the input to train and test the neural networks. The a...

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes employment totals for all counties on a monthly basis. BLS use the Quarterly Census Employment and Wages, where responses are received 6–7 month lagged basis aggregated to county, apply time series forecast model each county project forward current month, which ignores dependence among counties. Our approach treats these by-county as collectio...

In this study, we aimed to systematically and globally evaluate the monthly precipitation forecasts of JMA/MRI-CPS2, a dynamical seasonal climate forecast (Dyn-SCF) system operated by Japan Meteorological Agency, comparing its with those statistical SCF (St-SCF) using indices. We developed new global St-SCF 17 indices compared JMA/MRI-CPS2. Consequently, skill JMA/MRI-CPS2 was determined be hig...

In this article, we describe the construction and implementation of a pricing model for a leading UK mortgage lender. The crisis in mortgage lending has highlighted the importance of incorporating default risk into such pricing decisions by mortgage lenders. In this case the underlying default model is based on survival analysis, which allows the estimation of month-to-month default probabiliti...

background : zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (zcl), an important public health problem in iran, is sensitive to climate conditions. this study aimed to examine dynamic relations between the climate factors and incidence of zcl in golestan province, northern iran during 2010–2012. methods : data of monthly climatic factors, including temperature variables, relative humidity variables, evaporati...