Introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a continuing threat to the pig production sector in the European Union. A scenario tree model was developed to obtain more insight into the main risk factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (P(CSFV)). As this model contains many uncertain input parameters, sensitivity analysis was used to indicate which of these parameters i...

Predicting someone’s chances of experiencing a cardiovascular event is a medical challenge that has yet to be resolved.1 Large-scale epidemiologic observation studies enable us to identify variables associated with greater probability of presenting cardiovascular disease. The INTERHEART study has recently corroborated these, comparing the circumstances that differentiated patients with myocardi...

Sensitivity to variability in resources has been documented in humans, primates, birds, and social insects, but the fit between empirical results and the predictions of risk sensitivity theory (RST), which aims to explain this sensitivity in adaptive terms, is weak [1]. RST predicts that agents should switch between risk proneness and risk aversion depending on state and circumstances, especial...

Risk sensitivity is an important component of fisher behaviour, yet its impact on fisher decision-making and utility is poorly understood. Here, we incorporate various forms of risk in a model of location choice by fishing vessels targeting broadbill swordfish, Xiphias gladius, and evaluate the importance of risk sensitivity for predicting location, perceived utility and profit over a fishing s...

In this contribution, we derive ILEG, an iterative algorithm to find risk sensitive solutions to nonlinear, stochastic optimal control problems. The algorithm is based on a linear quadratic approximation of an exponential risk sensitive nonlinear control problem. ILEG allows to find risk sensitive policies and thus generalizes previous algorithms to solve nonlinear optimal control based on iter...

AIM This study explored the association of depressive symptoms with indices of insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion in a cohort of non-diabetic men and women aged 30 to 64 years. METHODS The study population was derived from the 3-year follow-up of the Relationship between Insulin Sensitivity and Cardiovascular Disease Risk (RISC) study. Presence of significant depressive symptoms was de...

Recent advances in theoretical neuroscience suggest that motor control can be considered as a continuous decision-making process in which uncertainty plays a key role. Decision-makers can be risk-sensitive with respect to this uncertainty in that they may not only consider the average payoff of an outcome, but also consider the variability of the payoffs. Although such risk-sensitivity is a wel...