We propose a mechanism that explains standard stylized facts in both international macroeconomics and finance. To do so, we develop New Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions à la Bernanke et al. (1999), which depart from the full-information rational expectations (FIRE) assumption. The key ingredient is home information bias (HIB) expectations. While FIRE predicts high consumption co-mo...

In this paper I discuss the increasingly prominent role of administrative micro data in macroeconomics research. This type proved important for interpreting causes and consequences Great Recession, it has played a crucial shaping economists’ understanding COVID-19 pandemic near real-time. number specific insights from research while also illustrating some broader opportunities challenges workin...

Real-business-cycle models rely on total factor productivity (TFP) shocks to explain the observed co-movement between consumption, investment and hours. However an emerging body of evidence identifies “investment shocks”as important drivers of business cycles. This paper shows that a neoclassical model consistent with observed heterogeneity in labor supply and consumption across employed and no...

Economists are still trying to assess the severity of this slowdown, and this assessment has clearly become more difficult since the events of September 11. It is worth emphasizing that this article is silent about the economic implications of wars and similar cataclysms and focuses instead on the analysis of " typical " business cycles. The slowdown that began prior to September 11 had already...

We study how fluctuations in money growth correlate with fluctuations in real and nominal output growth and inflation. We pick cycles from each time series that last 2 to 8 (business cycles) and 8 to 40 (longer-term cycles) years, using band-pass filters. We employ a data set from 1880 to 2001 for eleven countries, without gaps. Fluctuations in money growth do not play a systematic and importan...

The Austrian theory mainly deals with analyzing the effects of an increased credit offer on productive structures. In this respect, we propose to link long-term growth cycles to various short-term interest rate gaps. Are European Business Cycles affected when a fall in the money market rate disrupts agents' expectations of inflation? Using the hypothesis that individual speculation is motivated...

ion layer dimension: target-specific aggregation and filtering of information which allows the selective hiding of company-internal information while offering to expose CBP relevant information to partners Fig. 3: Cross-organisational Business Process (CBP) Framework (Greiner and Jäkel 2007) The modelling level dimension incorporates three modelling levels: The Business level represents the bus...