This paper presents methods for improving the attention span of workers in tasks that heavily rely on their attention to the occurrence of rare events. The underlying idea in our approach is to dynamically augment the task with some dummy (artificial) events at different times throughout the task, rewarding the worker upon identifying and reporting them. The proposed approach is an alternative ...

The theory of copulas provides a useful tool for modeling dependence in risk management. In insurance and finance, as well as in other applications, dependence of extreme events is particularly important, hence there is a need for the detailed study of the tail behaviour of the multivariate copulas. In this paper we investigate the class of copulas having homogeneous lower tails. We show that h...

The gambler’s fallacy (Tune, 1964) refers to the belief that a streak is more likely to end than chance would dictate. In three studies, participants exhibited a retrospective gambler’s fallacy (RGF) in which an event that seems rare appears to come from a longer sequence than an event that seems more common. Study 1 demonstrates this bias for streaks, while Study 2 does so with single rare eve...

The occurrence of major avalanche episodes in the Eastern Pyrenees (NE Spain) is estimated by means of the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions, assuming that they are rare events. The differences observed in their spatial distribution along the seven regions in which Eastern Pyrenees have been divided, suggests us to look for spatial variations in the relationship between extreme av...

Detecting rare events in an electronic medical record (EMR) is similar to searching for a needle in a haystack. Automated methods (natural language processing) and manual methods (chart review) can be used. However, when events are rare and the patient population is large, manual annotation may not be feasible and NLP alone may not be able to reach acceptable levels of performance. We propose a...

In spite of precautions to avoid the harmful effects of extreme events, we experience recurrently phenomena that overcome the preventive barriers. These barriers usually increase drastically right after the occurrence of such extreme events, but steadily decay in their absence. In this paper we consider a simple model that mimics the evolution of the protection barriers to study the efficiency ...

there are miscellaneous quality characteristics in healthcare which are interested to be monitored. however, monitoring each characteristic needs a special statistical method. there are some characteristics with very small incidence rates that it’s usually considered not to be necessary to monitoring them, since their incidence rates are so small that p and np charts are not able to monitor the...