We study the implied default distributions for the iTraxx-CJ tranches by means of the Principle of Maximum Entropy. The profiles are quite different from those of some popular probabilistic models. We show how to analyze the correlation structures, the conditional default probabilities pi,j and conditional default correlations ρi,j . Here the subscript i,j means that the default probability and...

The Credit Risk+ model is one of the industry standards for estimating the credit default risk for a portfolio of credit loans. The natural parameterization of this model requires the default probability to be apportioned using a number of (non-negative) factor loadings. However, in practice only default correlations are often available but not the factor loadings. In this paper we investigate ...

Debt management policy for governments of developing countries must balance conflicting objectives. The structure of explicit and implicit government debt influences the amount of lending private creditors are willing to extend, contractual debt service costs, the probability of default and the costs of default. Because default is not relevant for governments of industrial countries, their debt...

Evidence from many countries in recent years suggests that collateral values and recovery rates on corporate defaults can be volatile and, moreover, that they tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This link between recovery rates and default rates has traditionally been neglected by credit risk models, as most of them focused on default risk and adopted...

Evidence from many countries in recent years suggests that collateral values and recovery rates on corporate defaults can be volatile and, moreover, that they tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This link between recovery rates and default rates has traditionally been neglected by credit risk models, as most of them focused on default risk and adopted...