As we celebrate the centenary of John Maynard Keynes’s Treatise on Probability (1921), are still faced with unresolved, fundamental questions about his foray into philosophy probability. One these unresolved concerns whether Keynes (1931) later changed mind in response to intense criticism from Frank Ramsey (1922, 1931) and abandoned logical theory This essay draws Cheryl Misak’s recent biograp...

Climate is the most important factor which control desertification .In order to detect climate changes in desert zones, time trend analysis is applied to extreme indices in Kashan station using extreme climate index software (ECIS). Results show significant trends in extreme indices during the past decade 1995-2004 and the pronounced warming is associated with a negative trend in cold extremes....

Bayesian network (BN) A directed graph whose nodes represent variables, and edges represent influences. Together with conditional probability distributions, a Bayesian network represents the joint probability distribution of its variables. Conditional probability distribution Assignment of probabilities to all instances of a set of variables when the value of one or more variables is known. Con...

The potential for liquefaction triggering of a soil under a given seismic loading is measured herein by probability of liquefaction. The first order reliability method FORM is used to calculate reliability index, from which the probability of liquefaction is obtained. This approach requires the knowledge of parameter and model uncertainties; the latter is the focus of this paper. An empirical m...

Multiple heterogeneous data sources are becoming increasingly available for statistical analyses in the era of big data. As an important example finite-population inference, we develop a unified framework test-and-pool approach to general parameter estimation by combining gold-standard probability and non-probability samples. We focus on case when study variable is observed both datasets estima...

In this paper, we investigate the outage probability and power allocation for the two-way decode-andforward (DF) relay networks with relay selection. Specially, we consider independent but not necessarily identical distributed Rayleigh fading channels. Firstly, we derive an exact closed form outage probability expression. To shed light on the relation between the outage probability and the powe...