نتایج جستجو برای: prediction interval
تعداد نتایج: 446565 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
Optimal prediction-intervals for the exponential distribution, based on generalized order statistics
This paper proposes optimal prediction intervals for the future generalized order statistic (GOS) based on the first GOS (ordinary order statistics, usual record values, -record values) from an exponential population. A conditional argument is considered for obtaining an optimal prediction interval for future GOS. A numerical example illustrates this technique.
The paper introduces an alternative approach to time-series prediction for stock index data using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets. The work differs from the existing research on time-series prediction by the following counts. First, partitions of the time-series, obtained by fragmenting its valuation space over disjoint equal sized intervals, are represented by Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets (or Type-1 ...
For a non-linear parameterised model, the effects of withdrawing an example from the training set can be predicted. We focus on the prediction of the error on the left-out example, and of the confidence interval for the prediction of this example. We derive a rigorous expression of the first-order expansion, in parameter space, of the gradient of a quadratic cost function, and specify its valid...
The use of asymptotically mean-unbiased estimation is considered as a means of biascorrection, when bootstrap prediction interval is constructed for autoregressive (AR) models with unknown lag order. Its computational efficiency enables application of the endogenous lag order bootstrap algorithm to prediction intervals. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments are conducted using a number of stationar...
Accurate prediction and reasonable warning for dam displacement are important contents of safety monitoring. However, it is difficult to identify abnormal based on deterministic point results. In response, this paper proposes a model that integrates several strategies achieve high-precision interval displacement. Specifically, the realized in three stages. first stage, Extreme gradient boosting...
Proactive reconfiguration of network slices according to uncertain traffic demands is essential improve resource utilization while ensuring service quality in 5G-and-beyond systems. Existing researches on slice are either model-driven or data-driven methods. However, methods may cause over-provisioning due a lack prediction mechanism, unrealistic inter-slice that involves costly and time-consum...
We address the problem of approximating the 2-Interval Pattern problem over its various models and restrictions. This problem, which is motivated by RNA secondary structure prediction, asks to find a maximum cardinality subset of a 2-interval set with respect to some prespecified model. For each such model, we give varying approximation quality depending on the different possible restrictions i...
In software cost estimation various methods have been proposed to yield a prediction of the productivity of a software project. Most of the methods produce point estimates. However, in practice it is more realistic and useful to have a method providing interval predictions. Although some methods accompany a point estimate with a prediction interval, it is also reasonable to use a method predict...
Wind power point forecasting is the primary method to deal with its uncertainty. However, in many applications, the probabilistic interval of wind power is more useful than traditional point forecasting. Methods to determine the probabilistic interval of wind power point forecasting value is very essential to power system operations. Based on the bootstrap method, this paper proposed a wavelet ...
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