This paper presents the COG-FPOM, a model based on the Fuzzy Pay-Off Method (FPOM). The FPOM is a scenario-based real option valuation method that uses fuzzy numbers as possibility distributions. The paper shows an unexpected result generated by the original FPOM, in which the real option would have a negative value. It further analyses its reasons and suggests a way to overcome it, by using th...

Choice often produces conflict. This notion, however, plays no role in classical decision theory, in which each alternative is assigned a value, and the decision maker selects from every choice set the option with the highest value. We contrast this principle of value maximization with the hypothesis that the option to delay choice or seek new alternatives is more likely to be selected when con...

This article considers the value of information and optimal timing to acquire it in a model of irreversible investment. There are two types of uncertainties: first, the value of the investment project depends on an observable stochastic process, and second, it depends on an ex-ante uncertain parameter, whose true value may be learnt at a cost. The former type of uncertainty implies that the opp...

Recent applications of real options theory in strategy research have examined investment decisions framed as the purchase or exercise of particular options, but research has yet to offer direct evidence on whether firms actually capture option value from such investments. In this paper, we estimate the proportion of firm value accounted for by growth options and link the growth option value to ...

This paper examines the valuation of a generalized American-style option known as a game-style call option in an infinite time horizon setting. The specifications of this contract allow the writer to terminate the call option at any point in time for a fixed penalty amount paid directly to the holder. Valuation of a perpetual game-style put optionwas addressed byKyprianou (2004) in a Black-Scho...

In this paper we deal with the problem of valuing the surrender option embedded in a participating life insurance policy with a minimum interest rate guaranteed. This feature is an American-style put option that enables the policyholder to sell back the contract to the insurer at the surrender value. By means of a recursive binomial tree à la Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) we compute, first of...

Escalation of commitment to a failing course of action has been studied in the IT literature, where IT managers are shown to continue committing resources to bad project instead of terminating them. We make a case that escalation of commitment can be considered as the problem of not exercising an option to abandon a project at the correct (optimal) time. The value of a real option is time sensi...

The Black–Scholes Option pricing model (OPM) developed in 1973 has always been taken as the cornerstone of option pricing model. The generic applications of such a model are always restricted by its nature of not being suitable for fuzzy environment since the decision-making problems occurring in the area of option pricing are always with a feature of uncertainty. When an investor faces an opti...

We propose using a real options framework to quantify the financial value of cross training. We model the investment decision in cross training as a series of European call options with the same exercise price but with different maturity dates. We use the Black-Scholes formula and the binomial tree approach to find the value of having the option to cross train. A case study shows the applicatio...

This paper incorporates an option value into deforestation policy analysis. Similar to an option value in finance, the option value here reflects the advantage to delaying irreversible species extinction until more information about the uncertain value of species is known. The return from species is modeled as a stochastic flow of benefits which ceases if policy makers choose to deforest. Defor...