Construction projects usually involve high investments. It is, therefore, a risky adventure for companies as actual costs of construction projects nearly always exceed the planed scenario. This is due to the various risks and the large uncertainty existing within this industry. Determination and quantification of risks and their impact on project costs within the construction industry is descri...

So you're new to the idea of risk analysis, and you've got a lot of questions. What is risk? What do we mean by a "model?" What exactly is Monte Carlo simulation? Is anyone in your industry using this technique? This article is a simple overview to help you to understand what risk analysis is and why Monte Carlo simulation has become an increasingly popular and necessary technique for business ...

Research was undertaken to assist practitioners in undertaking Monte Carlo simulation of project schedules. A probabilistic model was developed to translate project characteristics into schedule risk boundaries. This model has been tested in several projects and performed very well. Lessons learned during the application of Monte Carlo simulation to a large project are discussed.

This paper addresses different methods for determining the amount of extra propellant (flight performance reserve or FPR) that is necessary to reach orbit with a high probability of success. One approach involves assuming that the various influential parameters are independent and that the result behaves as a Gaussian. Alternatively, probabilistic models may be used to determine the vehicle and...

this paper proposes a hybrid method to find cumulative distribution function (cdf) of completion time of gert-type networks (gtn) which have no loop and have only exclusive-or nodes. proposed method is cre-ated by combining an analytical transformation with gaussian quadrature formula. also the combined crude monte carlo simulation and combined conditional monte carlo simulation are developed a...

Detailed balance is an overly strict condition to ensure a valid Monte Carlo simulation. We show that, under fairly general assumptions, a Monte Carlo simulation need satisfy only the weaker balance condition. Not only does our proof show that sequential updating schemes are correct, but also it establishes the correctness of a whole class of new methods that simply leave the Boltzmann distribu...

In this paper we present an overview of classical results about the variance reduction technique of control variates. We emphasize aspects of the theory that are of importance to the practitioner, as well as presenting relevant applications.

Options is an important financial derivative products, therefore it is important to reasonable pricing. According to the financial asset returns typically exhibit the feature of aiguilles large remaining part and hypothesis, it obeys normal inverse Gaussian distribution, using Monte Carlo simulation based on normal inverse Gaussian distribution on its pricing and improving it by antithesis vari...

The purpose of this paper is to provide an introduction to the physics of scattering theory, to define the dosimetric concept of linear energy transfer in terms of scattering theory, and to provide an introduction to the concepts underlying Monte Carlo simulations.

This study questions a common practice of using item weights for construct validity tests in the application of formative measurement. The practice does not confirm to the theoretical formation of formative constructs. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to examine the practice. The results clearly demonstrate that item weights do not reflect the true design of the focal formative co...