in general, energy prices, such as those of crude oil, are affected by deterministic events such as seasonal changes as well as non-deterministic events such as geopolitical events. it is the non-deterministic events which cause the prices to vary randomly and makes price prediction a difficult task. one could argue that these random changes act like noise which effects the deterministic variat...

The Hubbert model assumes that the worldwide production of crude oil will follow a bell-shaped curve. Oil prices are expected to increase, or even to spike up, at or after the production peak. However, the Hubbert model provides no description of price trends. We also lack historical data that can be used as a guide, since so far there have been no cases of a complete, worldwide depletion of a ...

This paper studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence beha...

This paper proposes an alternative approach based on a genetic algorithm and neural network (GA–NN) for the prediction of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price. Comparative simulation results suggested that the proposed GA–NN approach is better than the baseline algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. Mann–Whitney test results indicated that the WTI ...

In this study, a multiscale neural network learning paradigm based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is proposed for crude oil price prediction. In this learning paradigm, the original price series are first decomposed into various independent intrinsic mode components (IMCs) with a range of frequency scales. Then the internal correlation structures of different IMCs are explored by neural ...

Futures contract is one of the most important derivatives that is used in financial markets in all over the world to buy or sell an asset or commodity in the future. Pricing of this tool depends on expected price of asset or commodity at the maturity date. According to this, theoretical futures pricing models try to find this expected price in order to use in the futures contract. So in this ar...

Vegetable oils are renewable in nature and can be directly used as fuels in diesel engines. However, their high viscosity and poor volatility lead to reduced thermal efficiency and increased hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide and smoke emissions. Transesterification is one of the methods by which viscosity could be drastically reduced and the fuel could be adopted for use in diesel engine. This Ester...

This paper o¤ers a plausible explanation for the close link between oil prices and aggregate macroeconomic performance in the 1970s. Although this link has been well documented in the empirical literature, standard economic models are not able to replicate this link when actual oil prices are used to simulate the models. In particular, standard models cannot explain the depth of the recession i...

Bahrain is a very small oil-exporting country in the Middle East with a fixed exchange rate against the US dollar and has no restricton capital flows. Because its economy evolves around the oil sector, its economy is thought to be vulnerable to oil price movements. It is feared that the recent oil price hike would feed from foreign assets to monetary base and money supply to inflation. Empirica...

We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We select the transformation of the oil price of Lee, Ni and Ratti (1995), based on a linear analysis of the relationship between output growth and the oil pri...