The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real-time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point sourc...

[1] ElarmS is a network-based methodology for rapid earthquake detection, location and hazard assessment in the form of magnitude estimation and peak ground motion prediction. The methodology is currently being tested as part of the real-time seismic system in California leveraging the resources of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and the Advanced National Seismic System. A tota...

A wide set of premonitory seismicity patterns is reproduced on a numerical model of seismicity, and their performance in prediction of major earthquakes is evaluated. Seismicity is generated by the Colliding Cascades Model, recently developed by the same authors. The model has a hierarchical structure. It describes the interaction of two cascades: a direct cascade of loading, which is applied t...

The virtual earthquake approach to ground-motion prediction uses Green’s functions (GFs) determined from the ambient seismic field to predict long-period shaking from scenario earthquakes. The method requires accurate relative GF amplitudes between stations and among components; however, the amplitudes of ambient-field GFs are known to be subject to biases from uneven source distribution. We sh...

This paper reviews issues, models, and methodologies arising out of the problems of predicting earthquakes and forecasting earthquake risk. The emphasis is on statistical methods which attempt to quantify the probability of an earthquake occurring within specified time, space, and magnitude windows. One recurring theme is that such probabilities are best developed from models which specify a ti...