In this paper, we embed the microeconomic decisions associated with investment under uncertainty, capacity utilization, and machine replacement in a general equilibrium model based on putty-clay technology. We show that the combination of log-normally distributed idiosyncratic productivity uncertainty and Leontief utilization choice yields an aggregate production function that is easily charact...

Gelfand-Shilov spaces are spaces of entire functions defined in terms of a rate of growth in one direction and a concomitant rate of decay in an orthogonal direction. Gelfand and Shilov proved that the Fourier transform is an isomorphism among certain of these spaces. In this paper we consider mapping properties of fractional Fourier transforms on Gelfand-Shilov spaces. Just as the Fourier tran...

In recent years, wind energy has a remarkable growth in the world, but one of the important problems of power generated from wind is its uncertainty and corresponding power. For solving this problem, some approaches have been presented. Recently, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a heuristic method has more applications for this propose. In this paper, short-term (1 hour) and mid-term (24...

Typically, biological models fitted to experimental data suffer from significant parameter uncertainty, which can lead to inaccurate or uncertain predictions. One school of thought holds that accurate estimation of the true parameters of a biological system is inherently problematic. Recent work, however, suggests that optimal experimental design techniques can select sets of experiments whose ...

In this paper, we embed the microeconomic decisions associated with investment under uncertainty, capacity utilization, and machine replacement in a general equilibrium model based on putty-clay technology. We show that the combination of log-normally distributed idiosyncratic productivity uncertainty and Leontief utilization choice yields an aggregate production function that is easily charact...

We study a production economy with regime switching in the conditional mean and volatility of productivity growth. The representative agent has generalized disappointment aversion (GDA) preferences. We show that volatility risk in productivity growth carries a positive and sizable risk premium in levered equity. Our model can endogenously generate long-run risks in the volatility of consumption...

Structured population models are increasingly used in decision making, but typically have many entries that are unknown or highly uncertain. We present an approach for the systematic analysis of the effect of uncertainties on long-term population growth or decay. Many decisions for threatened and endangered species are made with poor or no information. We can still make decisions under these ci...

Following massive government interventions during the great recession of 20072009, governments’ indebtedness has skyrocketed around the globe. These dramatic financing needs raise uncertainty about the future stance of fiscal policies and their effects on the growth prospects of the economy. In this paper, we reconsider the link between short-run stabilization and uncertainty about long-term fi...

1,2 Abstract— Examination of currently-accepted software cost, schedule, and defect estimation algorithms reveals a common acknowledgment that estimated software size is the single most influential independent variable. Unfortunately, “The most important business decisions about a software project are made at the time of minimum knowledge and maximum uncertainty.” This includes minimum knowledg...

A high proportion of the uncertainty in the decline of Arctic sea ice thickness in recent global climate models can be explained by the uncertainty in the ice thickness in the late 20th century. Experiments with one model indicate that this sensitivity to the mean state remains even when ice-albedo feedback is eliminated from the model. The magnitude of ice-albedo feedback is quantified and fou...