The Term Structure of Interest-Rate Futures Prices We derive general properties of two-factor models of the term structure of interest rates and, in particular, the process for futures prices and rates. Then, as a special case, we derive a no-arbitrage model of the term structure in which any two futures rates act as factors. The term structure shifts and tilts as the factor rates vary. The cro...

We examine the informational role of derivatives in price discovery in Taiwan. After controlling for market cycles, moneyness, and liquidity, we use three different methods to measure the information contents in different trading venues. We find that the trades on futures contribute the most to price discovery. The futures transactions, however, are also the most costly in executing information...

In this paper we study whether the commodity futures market predicts the commodity spot market. Using historical daily data on four commodities—oil, gold, platinum, and silver—we find that they do. We then show how investors can use this information on the futures market to devise trading strategies and make profits. In particular, dynamic trading strategies based on a mean–variance investor fr...

German electricity European options on futures using Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD), variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model. Implied volatility is examined...

We study the tick dynamical behavior of the bond futures in Korean Futures Exchange(KOFEX) market. Since the survival probability in the continuous-time random walk theory is applied to the bond futures transaction, the form of the decay function in our bond futures model is discussed from two kinds of Korean Treasury Bond(KTB) transacted recently in KOFEX. The decay distributions for survival ...

Imagine there exist markets for yield futures contracts as well as ordinary price futures contracts. • Intuitively one would think that a combined use of yield futures contracts and price futures contracts ought to provide a reasonable strategy for insuring revenue. • In the paper this idea is made precise. It is shown that revenue can be secured in by a combined replication of these two contra...

the aim of this study is to explore the feasibility of setting up a commodities futures market in iran. specifications for the margin requirements, daily price movement limits, the length of expiration intervals, tick sizes and contract size of various potential future contracts are hereby examined. saffron, pistachio and rice emerge as the three suitable iranian agricultural commodities. a new...

I discuss the short-run dynamics of commodity prices, production, and inventories, as well as the sources and effects of market volatility. I explain how prices, rates of production, and inventory levels are interrelated, and are determined via equilibrium in two interconnected markets: a cash market for spot purchases and sales of the commodity, and a market for storage. I show how equilibrium...

In this paper, we study the market of the CBOE S&P 500 three-month variance futures that were listed on May 18, 2004. By using a simple mean-reverting stochastic volatility model for the S&P 500 index, we present a linear relation between the price of fixed time-to-maturity variance futures and the V IX. The model prediction is supported by empirical tests. We find that a model with a fixed mea...

The Term Structure of Interest-Rate Futures Prices We derive general properties of two-factor models of the term structure of interest rates and, in particular, the process for futures prices and rates. Then, as a special case, we derive a no-arbitrage model of the term structure in which any two futures rates act as factors. In this model, the term structure shifts and tilts as the factor rate...