A simulation model of international tourist flows is used to estimate the impact of a carbon tax on aviation fuel. The effect of the tax on travel behaviour is small: A global $1000/tC would change travel behaviour to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation by 0.8%. This is because the imposed tax is probably small relative to the air fare. A $1000/tC tax would less than dou...

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourism demand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time series methods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important feat...

Africa’s tourism potential is acknowledged to be significant but underdeveloped. This paper uses both cross-section data as well as panel data for the period 1996 to 2000 to identify the determinants of tourism arrivals in 43 African countries, taking into account the country of origin of tourists. The results strongly suggest that political stability, tourism infrastructure, marketing and info...

Tourism has become one of the largest and fastest growing businesses in the world over the recent decades. Total international tourist arrivals increased from 674 million in 2000 to 1,035 million in 2012 (World Tourism Organization, 2013). International tourism receipts in 2012 reached US$1,075 billion worldwide, documenting a 20% increase over 2009 (World Tourism Organization, 2013). World tou...

This paper evaluates the performance of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state-space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We...

Private accommodation capacities are a growing segment of the lodging industry in Croatia. In private accommodation capacities 2,684 million tourists were registered in 2010, there were 19,4 million overnight stays, which makes 25% of total arrivals and 34% of total overnights. Although studies have been made on economic impact of tourism on a destination (at the national level), the issues of ...

Tourism was formally recognized as a fast-growing industry and thereafter, subsequently placed emphasis on the development of tourism in Sri Lanka. At present tourism is one of the main economical revenue resource which makes the Sri Lankan economy stronger. The key focus of tourism in Sri Lanka is to do the attraction of huge number of tourists throughout the year. In the meanwhile, tourist in...

This paper aims at developing Poisson autoregressive and moving-average models while incorporating transcendental covariates corresponding to the seasonal impulses for non-stationary time series of large counts. These models are implemented to analyse the non-stationary monthly time series of tourist arrivals in Mauritius over the period of twenty five years (Dec 1985 – Dec 2010). The regressio...

Economic development and improvement in living standards, as well as political liberation in China have contributed to the growth in international travel demand. Additionally, the supportive role of the Chinese government in outbound tourism development and China’s inclusion in the World Trade Organisation have and will ensure a continuing ease on travel restrictions, and enhance the opportunit...