While most of the empirical studies of structural credit risk models try to test the performance of structural models in bond and credit derivatives pricing, little results are provided for default prediction. Therefore, in this study, we empirically compare four structural credit risk models – for their default prediction capabilities. Our empirical results indicate that exogenous default boun...

A prediction market is a relatively new form of financial market whose ultimate purpose is to predict the outcome of an uncertain future event. This paper examines the extent of arbitrage in prediction markets and its implications for market efficiency. The most straightforward arbitrage opportunity in prediction markets is to exploit any divergence of the aggregate price of binary contracts pr...

Recently, data mining and time series prediction in financial forecasting has received much research attention. Many techniques are used in prediction on stock and fund trend, volatility, etc. In this paper, two technique of neural network is compared, namely, Support Vector Machine (Support Vector Machine, SVM) and MLP for considering four years of data of Sensex.(Bombay Stock Exchange).

optimized decision making in the market of stocks and bonds needs utilizing suitable tools and skills in order to choose the best choices for investment. the most important financial information of corporations is their financial reports that help analyzing basics of stocks. current research by basing basic information of corporation’s financial reports, has tried to examine traces of 10 instan...

the sales proceeds are the most important factors for keeping alive profitable companies. so sales and budget sales are considered as important parameters influencing all other decision variables in an organization. therefore, poor forecasting can lead to great loses in organization caused by inaccurate and non-comprehensive production and human resource planning. in this research a coherent so...

Recent bankruptcy of big companies all over the world and fluctuations in Iran's stock market require that some methods be developed for the evaluation of companies' financial potential. Different models are used for the prediction of bankruptcy and the evaluation of organizational financial situation. Environmental changes and increasing competition among agencies led to companies' and organiz...

First Executive Corporation’s bankruptcy in 1991 made the insurance policyholders, investors and regulators to concern about the solvency of life insurer in US market. As First Executive Corporation had more than 15 billion dollars in assets, its failure provoked increasing debate over the prediction system of financial distress in insurance industry, the Insurance Regulatory Information System...

Determining the firm performance using a set of financial measures/ratios has been an interesting and challenging problem for many researchers and practitioners. Identification of factors (i.e., financial measures/ratios) that can accurately predict the firm performance is of great interest to any decision maker. In this study, we employed a two-step analysis methodology: first, using explorato...