We experimentally examine a reinsurance market in which participants have differing information regarding the probability distribution over losses. The key question is whether the market equilibrium reflects traders maximizing value with respect to their different priors, or whether the equilibrium is one based on a common belief incorporating all participants’ information. When assuming subjec...

Time-related aspects of health have attracted increasing interest, and it has become evident that many medical situations concern the exchange of present-day costs for future benefits. Traditional decision analytic paradigms weigh the probability of outcomes and the value of outcomes. Such analyses are incomplete if they do not consider the time of the outcome as well. The concept of diminishin...

This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different assumptions regarding the structure of systematic risk and the nature of exposure or firm heterogeneity. We derive fat-tailed correlated loss distributions arising from Gaussian (i.e. non-fat-tailed) risk factors and explore the potential for (and limit of) risk diversification. Where...

A desirable goal for autonomous agents is to be able coordinate on the fly with previously unknown teammates. Known as “ad hoc teamwork”, enabling such a capability has been receiving increasing attention in research community. One of central challenges ad teamwork quickly recognizing current plans other and planning accordingly. In this paper, we focus scenario which teammates can communicate ...