Performance assessment often has to be conducted under uncertainty. This paper proposes a ‘‘fuzzy expected value approach’’ for data envelopment analysis (DEA) in which fuzzy inputs and fuzzy outputs are first weighted, respectively, and their expected values then used to measure the optimistic and pessimistic efficiencies of decision making units (DMUs) in fuzzy environments. The two efficienc...

Is the value premium predictable? We study time variations of the expected value premium using a two-state Markov switching model. We find that when conditional volatilities are high, the expected excess returns of value stocks are more sensitive to aggregate economic conditions than the expected excess returns of growth stocks. As a result, the expected value premium is time varying. It spikes...

Inspired by much empirical evidence of human decisionmaking under risk that does not coincide with expected value maximization, much effort has been invested into the development of descriptive theories of human decision-making involving risk (e.g. Prospect Theory, Regret Theory, SP/A Theory). An open question is how behavior corresponding to these descriptive models could have been learned or ...

Abstract: The ability to identify useful information, and selectively extract it, is critical for perception and cognition alike. For instance, to discriminate between object categories, the visual system must direct the eyes' gaze to useful features. What are the neural substrates of assessment of features' relative expected information value? We trained 10 subjects on a probabilistic categori...

Expected value of sample information (EVSI) involves simulating data collection, Bayesian updating, and re-examining decisions. Bayesian updating in Weibull models typically requires Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We examine five methods for calculating posterior expected net benefits: two heuristic methods (data lumping and pseudo-normal); two Bayesian approximation methods (Tierney & Kadane...

In this paper we provide an alternative interpretation of the Shapley value in TU games as the unique maximaizer of expected Nash welfare.

Basing higher-order decisions on expected value (reward probability x reward magnitude) maximizes an agent's accruement of reward over time. The goal of this study was to determine whether the advanced preparation of simple actions reflected the expected value of the potential outcomes. Human subjects were required to direct a saccadic eye movement to a visual target that was presented either t...

An uncertain random variable is a measurable function from a probability space to the set of uncertain variables. In this paper, subadditivity property of chance measure and some inequalities on expected value for uncertain random variables including Jensen’s Inequality, Liapunov Inequality and cp Inequality are proved. Based on these inequalities, linear property and other properties of conver...

Previous work shows that the adolescent reward system is hyperactive, but this finding may be confounded by differences in how teens value money. To address this, we examined the neural ontogeny of objective value representation. Adolescent and adult participants performed a monetary gambling task in which they chose to accept or reject gambles of varying expected value. Increasing expected val...