We examine empirically the conjecture that limits to speculation in the foreign exchange market may induce nonlinearities in the spot-forward relationship and in the process driving the deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition. Our empirical results provide strong evidence of important nonlinearities which are consistent with a model of deviations from UIP with two ext...

A currency area can be a self-validating optimal policy regime, even when monetary unification does not foster real economic integration and intra-industry trade. In our model firms choose the degree of exchange rate pass-through onto export prices accounting for expected monetary policies, and monetary authorities choose optimal policy rules taking firms’ pass-through as given. We show that th...

Today many argue that there appears to be an epidemic case of “fear of floating”. Some have further claimed that credible inflation targeting – a popular regime choice today – and fear of floating are identical regimes. This paper takes a different view. We modify Calvo and Reinhart’s (2002) approach to analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, interest rates and inflation across 88 exc...

This study examines the significant impact of exchange rate shock on prices of Malaysian importsand exports. In methodology, the study adopts vector error correction (VECM) model using monthlydata of nominal exchange rates, money supply, prices of imports and prices of exports covering theperiod of M1:1999 to M12:2006. For further analysis, we adopt an innovation accounting bysimulating varianc...

Banks play an important role in the Iranian economy which has a bank-based financial system. We examined the impact of exchange rate volatility as a determinant of banks' performance. In recent years, the exchange rate has been volatile in the Iranian economy and have an adverse effect on banks' performance. This study, investigate the issue for the period 2007-2017 for 14 Iranian banks. Exchan...

This paper assesses the effect of coal energy production volume, exchange rate, inflation and gross domestic product on volume Indonesia's exports in 1998-2019. Based an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, short run, we find that has a negative relationship to exports. However, other hand, positive In long also inflation, Besides, rate Keywords: Coal Energy, Exchange Rate, Inflation...

this research aims to use var as a risk measure to find the optimum portfolio in tehran stock exchange. in this research var which is calculated with parametric method by using the 15 daily returns of 100 companies from march 21, 2001 to november 22, 2007 was added to the markowitz model of portfolio optimization as additional constraint. by changing the accepted var and accepted confidence lev...

This paper employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to investigate the monetary policy framework of a small emerging open economy Malaysia, especially how the economy dynamically respond to money, interest rate, exchange rate and foreign shocks. We establish identification conditions to uncover the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on various domestic variables. Following...

The general-to-specific (GETS) approach to modelling is widely employed in the modelling of economic series, but less so in financial volatility modelling due to computational complexity when many explanatory variables are involved. This study proposes a simple way of avoiding this problem and undertakes an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the methodology applied to the modelling of weekly ...

We consider an exchange economy under uncertainty, in which agents’ utility functions exhibit constant absolute risk aversion, but they may be recursive and the expected utility calculation may be based on multiple subjective beliefs. The risk aversion coefficients, subjective beliefs, subjective time discount factors, initial endowments, and tradeable assets may differ across agents. We prove ...