Investors and other contributors to stock exchange need a variety of tools, measures, and information in order to make decisions. One of the most common tools and criteria of decision makers is price-to earnings per share ratio. As a result, investors are in pursuit of ways to have a better assessment and forecast of price and dividends and get the highest returns on their investment. Previous ...

A weighted replicator dynamic describes how agents switch between a forecast based on fundamentals, a rational bubble forecast and a re‡ective forecast, a weighted average of the former two. If the innovations to the extraneous martingale have a similar magnitude to those of the dividend process and agents are su¢ ciently aggressive in switching forecasting strategies, a signi…cant portion of t...

Forecasting electricity demand for future years is an essential step in resource planning. A common approach is for the system operator to predict future demand from the estimates of individual distribution companies. However, the predictions thus obtained may be of poor quality, since the reporting incentives are unclear. We propose a prediction market as a form of forecasting future demand fo...

We consider a manufacturer selling to a retailer with private demand forecast information arising dynamically over an infinite time horizon. We show that the manufacturer’s optimal dynamic long-term contract takes a simple form: in the first period, based on her private demand forecast, the retailer selects a wholesale price and pays an associated upfront fee, and, from then on, the two parties...

This paper proposes a method for determining the price bidding strategies of market participants consisting of Generation Companies (GENCOs) and Distribution Companies (DISCOs) in a day-ahead electricity market, while taking into consideration the load forecast uncertainty and demand response programs. The proposed algorithm tries to find a Pareto optimal point for a risk neutral participan...

Despite its status as a nature reserve, Wolong Nature Reserve (China) has experienced continued loss of giant panda habitat due to human activities such as fuelwood collection. Electricity, though available throughout Wolong, has not replaced fuelwood as an energy source. We used stated preference data obtained from in-person interviews to estimate a random utility model of the choice of adopti...

We consider interruptible electricity contracts issued by a distributor of electricity, that allow for interruptions to electric service in exchange for either an overall reduction in the price of electricity delivered, or for financial compensation at the time of interruption. We provide an equilibrium model to determine electricity prices, based on stochastic models of supply and demand. In t...

a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords: Electricity spot price Spikes Markov regime-switching Heteroscedasticity Inverse leverage effect One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model...