Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. On the positive side, experts have more information about the candidates and issues than voters do. On the negative side, experts all have access to the same information. Based on prior literature and on our experiences with the 2004 presidential election and the 2008 campaign so far, we have rea...

Public sales art catalogues include low and high pre-sale price estimates by experts. This makes it possible to analyze whether pre-sale estimates are unbiased predictors of realized prices. Unbiasedness is tested using a sample of some 1,600 lots of English silver auctioned by Christie's and Sotheby's. Results show that estimates are slightly (but significantly) biased and that experts do not ...

BACKGROUND There is little guidance on the particular ethical concerns that research raises with a palliative care population. AIM To present the process and outcomes of a workshop and consensus exercise on agreed best practice to accommodate ethical issues in research on palliative care. DESIGN Consultation workshop using the MORECare Transparent Expert Consultation approach. Prior to work...

Kolodny and MacFarlane () have made a pioneering contribution to our understanding of how the interpretation of deontic modals can be sensitive to evidence and information. But integrating the discussion of informationsensitivity into the standard Kratzerian framework for modals suggests ways of capturing the relevant data without treating deontic modals as “informational modals” in their s...

Critiquing Effective Decision Support in Time Critical Domains Abigail S Gertner Bonnie L Webber Supervisor The TraumAID system is a tool for assisting physicians during the initial de nitive management phase of patients with severe injuries Originally TraumAID was conceived as a rule based expert system combined with a planner After this architecture had been implemented and evaluated we began...

Research on expert-novice differences has mainly focused on how experts solve familiar problems. We know far less about the skills and knowledge used by experts when they are confronted with novel problems within their area of expertise. This article discusses a study in which verbal protocols were taken from subjects of various expertise designing an experiment in on area with which they were ...