After presenting a simple procedure for testing naturalness (similar to Bayesian inference and not more subjective than it) we show that LEP2 experiments pose a naturalness problem for ‘conventional’ supersymmetric models. About 95% of the parameter space of minimal supergravity MSSM is excluded by LEP2 experiments. Moreover in this model electroweak baryogenesis, or detectable supersymmetric c...

The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular way to specify dependencies between random variables in a probabilistic model. In the Bayesian framework the covariance structure can be specified using unknown hyperparameters. Integrating over these hyperparameters considers different possible explanations for the data when making predictions. This integration is often performed using Markov chain Monte ...

The recent development of Bayesian phylogenetic inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques has facilitated the exploration of parameter-rich evolutionary models. At the same time, stochastic models have become more realistic (and complex) and have been extended to new types of data, such as morphology. Based on this foundation, we developed a Bayesian MCMC approach to the analys...

    Background: Use of methamphetamine (MA) and other stimulants has increased steadily over the past 10 years. Risk factor evaluation to reduce the problem in the community is one solution to protect people from addiction. This study aimed at using Bayesian zero- inflated Poisson (ZIP) model to investigate the relationship between the number of using crystal meth and some demogr...

Mount Bidkhan stratovolcano is located in the central Iranian volcanic belt. It is composed of several types of pyroclastic deposits, lava flows and intrusive bodies. Textural and chemical characteristics of plagioclase phenocrysts from the eruptive products volcanic edifice, record complex magma mixing events over the lifetime of the volcano. Evidences such as xenocrystic high Al+Ti clinopyrox...

Using a dynamical network model of society, we show that cooperation is the norm in the Hawks-Doves game when individuals are allowed to break ties with undesirable neighbors and to make new acquaintances in their extended neighborhood. This is an interesting result, as standard theory for mixing populations prescribes that a certain fraction of defectors must always exist at equilibrium. We di...

Observed spatial patterns in natural systems may result from processes acting across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Although spatially explicit data on processes that generate ecological patterns, such as the distribution of disease over a landscape, are frequently unavailable, information about the scales over which processes operate can be used to understand the link between pattern an...

This paper presents an extension of Bayesian networks (BN) applied to reliability analysis of an open gas generator cycle Liquid propellant engine (OGLE) of launch vehicles. There are several methods for system reliability analysis such as RBD, FTA, FMEA, Markov Chains, and etc. But for complex systems such as LV, they are not all efficiently applicable due to failure dependencies between compo...

background : to prepare safe and adequate blood supply to meet patients’ needs and ensure a sufficient number of regular blood donors, knowledge about factors encouraging people to donate blood regularly is essential. considering its importance, we aimed to identifying the effective factors of the return to blood donation in based on zero-inflated count regression models using bayesian approach...