We assess the effect of minimum wage on labor market outcomes such as employment, unemployment, and force participation for most workers affected by policy. apply modern machine learning tools to construct demographically-based treatment groups capturing around 75% all workers—a major improvement over literature which has focused fairly narrow subgroups where policy a large bite (e.g., teens). ...

A dynamically consistent model of equilibrium unemployment when UI payments are duration dependent is developed. The main market distortion is a moral hazard problem: the government does not observe job o¤ers. Hence, UI payments put unemployed workers in a better bargaining position which directly a¤ects equilibrium wage determination. Simulations ...nd that shortening the duration of UI paymen...

Building upon a continuous-time model of search with Nash bargaining in a stationary environment, we analyze the effect of changes in minimum wages on labor market outcomes and welfare. While minimum wage increases may or may not lead to increases in unemployment in our model, they can be welfare-improving to labor market participants on both the supply and demand sides of the labor market. We ...

D U R I N G 1941, experience-rating provisions were operative under 17 of the 38 State unemployment compensation laws which provide for modification of employers' contribution rates on the basis of their experience with the risk of unemployment. Modified rates had been in effect in only 4 of these States in the preceding year; during 1942, experience rating will be in operation in 34 States. Pr...

! Average inflation below target in Sweden 1997-2011 ! Average inflation expectations (Prospera) close to target 1997-2011 Questions to be answered: ! If inflation expectations stuck at target when average inflation deviates from target, non-vertical long-run Phillips curve? ! If lower average inflation, higher average unemployment? ! If estimates of sustainable unemployment rate based on histo...

Assessing the Impact of Incomes Policy: The Italian Experience The Saint Valentine’s decree (1984) and the ensuing hard fought referendum (1985), which reduced the automatisms of scala mobile, started a process of redefinition of wage fixing in Italy, which culminated with the final abolition of scala mobile (1992) and the approval of Protocollo d’intesa (1993). Since then, following New Corpor...

Persistently high youth unemployment is one of the most pressing problems in South Africa. The South African government has proposed an employer wage subsidy to address the issue. We prospectively analyze such a policy. Recognizing that a credible estimate of the policy’s impact requires a model of the labor market that itself generates high unemployment in equilibrium, we estimate a structural...

Job Search with Nonparticipation In a non-stationary job search model we allow unemployed workers to have a permanent option to leave the labor force. Transitions into nonparticipation occur when reservation wages drop below the utility of being nonparticipant. Taking account of these transitions allows the identification of duration dependence in the job offer arrival rate and the wage offer d...

* Financial assistance under the Australian Bureau of Statistics' SEUP Research Fellowship Scheme and from the Australian Research Council is gratefully acknowledged. The views in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the funding agencies. We are grateful to Peter Kenyon and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. A number of Australian studies have provided m...