The effectiveness of humanitarian programs normally is evaluated according to a limited number of pre-defined objectives. These objectives typically represent only selected positive expected impacts of program interventions and as such, are inadequate benchmarks for understanding the overall effectiveness of aid. This is because programs also have unexpected impacts (both positive and negative)...

This paper identifies two distinct types of payoff kinks that can be exhibited by preference functions over monetary lotteries—“locally separable” vs. “locally nonseparable”—and illustrates their relationship to the payoff and probability derivatives of such functions. Expected utility and Fréchet differentiable preference functions are found to be incapable of exhibiting locally nonseparable p...

Technology has the potential to impact cognition in many ways. Here we contrast two forms of technology usage: (1) media multitasking (i.e., the simultaneous consumption of multiple streams of media, such a texting while watching TV) and (2) playing action video games (a particular subtype of video games). Previous work has outlined an association between high levels of media multitasking and s...

The effect of quenched impurities on systems which undergo first-order phase transitions is studied within the framework of the q-state Potts model. For large q a mapping to the random field Ising model is introduced which provides a simple physical explanation of the absence of any latent heat in 2D, and suggests that in higher dimensions such systems should exhibit a tricritical point with a ...

Bayesian inference about small areas is of considerable current interest, and simultaneous intervals for the parameters for the areas are needed because these parameters are correlated. This is not usually pursued because with many areas the problem becomes difficult. We describe a method for finding simultaneous credible intervals for a relatively large number of parameters, each corresponding...

The current WHO policy during measles outbreaks focuses on case management rather than reactive vaccination campaigns in urban areas of resource-poor countries having low vaccine coverage. Vaccination campaigns may be costly, or not timely enough to impact significantly on morbidity and mortality. We explored the time available for intervention during two recent epidemics. Our analysis suggests...

Proceeding from theoretical hypotheses, driving forces for the introduction of the ISO 9000ff series in innovative service companies are analysed. Based on the European Community Innovation Survey (CIS), a probit model is estimated with different explanatory variables based on a sample of innovative German service companies. The first analysis of the role of the quality standard ISO 9000ff in G...

Background: Small capacity, low temperature, geothermal heat sources provide significant opportunities for distributed, small scale power generation. Project definitions and pre-dimensioning however require advanced thermodynamic engineering at a cost independent of project size. In order to reduce this cost, a new method has been developed to allow basic level engineers to perform pre-optimisa...