Abstract Estimates of the anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF) trend have increased by 50% since 2000 (from +0.4 W m ?2 decade ?1 in 2000–09 to +0.6 2010–19), majority which is driven changes aerosol ERF trend, as a result emissions reductions. Here we study extent observations climate system agree with these assumptions. We use large ensemble from IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6...