We investigate whether a rare event (like the default of the annuity provider) can explain the annuity market participation puzzle. High risk aversion is needed to change behavior in the presence of such a disastrous shock but higher risk aversion also makes annuities more valuable. Therefore, these rare events are unlikely candidates to explain the low take-up of voluntary annuities. JEL Class...

Introduction: Predicting acute respiratory insufficiency due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can diminish the severe complications and mortality associated with the disease. This study aimed to develop an intelligent system based on machine learning (ML) models for frontline clinicians to effectively triage high-risk patients and prioritize who needs mechanical intubation (MI). Material...

In this paper we propose an optimisation approach to determining the optimal decay factor in time weighted (BRW) simulation. Testing of BRW simulation with different decay factors and competing VaR models is performed on a sample of nine Mediterranean countries, over a four year period that includes the ongoing financial crisis. After optimisation the BRW simulation is among the best performing...

One of the widely used methods to gauge risk is the Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT) model. While this model has been empirically successful, its use is limited by the fact that its formulas do not have a theoretical explanation – and thus, there is no guarantee that these formulas will work in other situations as well. In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation for the SFRT formulas....

BACKGROUND Gait characteristics estimated from daily-life trunk accelerations reflect gait quality and are associated with fall incidence in older adults. While associations are based on median values of these gait characteristics, their extreme values may reflect either high-risk situations or steady-state gait and may thus be more informative in relation to fall risk. OBJECTIVE The objectiv...

The potential advantage of extreme value theory in modeling management phenomena is the central theme of this paper. The statistics of extremes have played only a very limited role in management studies despite the disproportionate emphasis on unusual events in the world of managers. An overview of this theory and related statistical models is presented, and illustrative empirical examples prov...