This paper develops a probabilistic reconstruction of the No Miracles Argument (NMA) in the debate between scientific realists and anti-realists. The goal of the paper is to clarify and to sharpen the NMA by means of a probabilistic formalization. In particular, I demonstrate that the persuasive force of the NMA depends on the particular disciplinary context where it is applied, and the stabili...

I intuitively agree with Segal and Spaeth's conclusion that Supreme Court justices are guided in their decision-making by their personal beliefs and attitudes. For one thing, if jurists ideological beliefs were not important, the party of the president who nominated a justice would not matter, which seems clearly at odds with the facts. I also acknowledge the difficulties the authors face in at...

In this paper, we describe precedent-based explanations for case-based classification systems. Previous work has shown that explanation cases that are more marginal than the query case, in the sense of lying between the query case and the decision boundary, are more convincing explanations. We show how to retrieve such explanation cases in a way that requires lower knowledge engineering overhea...

suhrawardi’s logic of the hikmat al-ishraq is basically modal. so to understand his modal logic one first has to know the non-modal part upon which his modal logic is built. in my previous paper ‘suhrawardi on syllogisms’(3) i discussed the former in detail. the present paper is an exposition of his treatment of modal syllogisms. on the basis of some reasonable existential presuppositions and a...

The NREFS project is re-evaluating the management of radiation accidents, paying attention to environmental, financial and safety issues and to the threat and response phase. In designing our project some two years ago, we were concerned to avoid any assumption that a future accident will be similar to a past accident, in particular the Chernobyl and Fukushima Accidents. After a year of researc...

This paper is a continuous extension of the paper Maggi and Staiger (2011) in two aspects that both the state space and trading policy space are continuous instead of binary discrete. And the WTO Dispute Settlement Body(DSB) will have the binary ruling-free trade or notonce a dispute is invoked between importing and exporting countries. In the static game, the findings are basically a refinemen...