We study the consequences of indexing, i.e. commiting to invest in risky assets only via the market portfolio. We extend the canonical rational expectations model (Grossman and Stiglitz, 1980) to allow for multiple assets and endowment shocks, and show that indexing imposes a negative externality on other uninformed agents. More indexing makes informed trading on the market more profitable, whi...

We are the first paper to analyse and confirm the existence and extent of rational informational herding and rational informational contrarianism in a financial market experiment, and to compare and contrast these with the equivalent irrational phenomena. In our study, subjects generally behaved according to benchmark rationality. Moreover, traders who should herd or be contrarian in theory are...

The overvaluation hypothesis (Miller 1977) predicts that a) stocks are overvalued when there are short selling restrictions and that b) the overvaluation is increasing in the degree of divergence of opinion. We design an experiment that allows us to test these predictions in the laboratory. Our results support the hypothesis that prices are higher in the presence of short selling constraints. T...

The paper analyses a simplified version of a Glosten-Milgrom style specialist security trading model with trade-timing. In a setting where traders are differentially informed, if the best-informed investors have a sufficiently strong or weak impact on prices then the investors with the strongest impact on prices delay their investment strategically, pretending to be the low-impact types. JEL Cl...

This paper aims at improved accuracy in testing for long-run predictability in noisy series, such as stock market returns. Long-horizon regressions have previously been the dominant approach in this area. We suggest an alternative method that yields more accurate results. We find evidence of predictability in S&P 500 returns even when the confidence intervals are constructed using model-free me...

This study examines asymmetric and the lag effects of oil price, gas exchange rate on stock performance Malaysian sub-industries. Using company-level data multi factor asset pricing models, this found that rate, common systematic risk factors such as market, size, book-to-market have significant sub-industries, but these exposures remain heterogeneous. Oil price show strong asymmetrical impacts...

abstract in this paper, markov chain and dynamic programming were used to represent a suitable pattern for tax relief and tax evasion decrease based on tax earnings in iran from 2005 to 2009. results, by applying this model, showed that tax evasion were 6714 billion rials**. with 4% relief to tax payers and by calculating present value of the received tax, it was reduced to 3108 billion rials. ...