work “out of context,” but how cognitive engineering might help weather forecasters, in particular, remain within familiar decision-making spaces by improving on their display technology. Ballas (chap. 13, this volume) makes it clear how weather forecasting, as a workplace, is a constantly moving target by virtue of continual change in displays and data types. Since weather maps were invented a...

The hedging of weather risks has become extremely relevant in recent years, promoting the diffusion of weather derivative contracts. The pricing of such contracts require the development of appropriate models for the prediction of the underlying weather variables. Within this framework, we present a modification of the double long memory ARFIMA-FIGARCH model introducing time-varying memory coef...

Weather patterns recognition is very important to improve forecasting skills regarding severe storm conditions over a given area of the Earth. Severe weather can damage electric and telecommunication systems, besides generating material losses and even losses of life (Cooray et al., 2007; Lo Piparo, 2010; Santos et al., 2011). In especial for the electrical sector, is strategic to recognize wea...

We discuss the possibilities of use of the new generation of desktops for solution of one of the most important problems of weather forecasting: realtime prediction of thunderstorms, hails and rain storms. The phenomena are associated with development of intensive convection and are considered as the most dangerous weather conditions. The most perspective way of the phenomena forecast is comput...

Challenges in linking meteorological and climatological information with a wide range of farming decisions are addressed in this paper. In particular, while a considerable amount of weather and climate information is now available for farmers, some types of information under development or already operational, particularly climate forecasting, formation, may be ill-suited for use by farmers for...

The transmission lines are exposed to the atmosphere nature and will be affected by adverse weather such as lightning storm, so that it will affect the reliability of transmission system. This paper studies the fault probability model of transmission line during the lightning storm, and evaluates the short-term reliability of transmission system in the forecasting weather condition. Firstly, bu...

The rate at which organizations are acquiring data is exploding and managing such data so as to infer useful knowledge that can be put to use is increasingly becoming important. Data Mining (DM) is one such technology that is employed in inferring useful knowledge that can be put to use from a vast amount of data. This paper presents the data mining activity that was employed in weather data pr...

Since early responses are crucial to reduce the damage from unknown Internet attacks, our first consideration while developing a defense mechanism can be on time e ciency and observing (and predicting) the change of network statuses, even at the sacrifice of accuracy. In the recent security field, it is an earnest desire that a new mechanism to predict unknown future Internet attacks needs to b...

This COMET proposal describes a two-year project, beginning on 6/1/00, that will create, evaluate, and implement the first precipitation-type probabilistic forecast system, using ensemble forecasting and consensus forecasting concepts, at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The research component of this project will evaluate the quality of var...