Abstract. Responses of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to global warming remain uncertain, which challenges ENSO forecasts in a climate. We investigate changes characteristics and predictability idealized simulations with quadrupled CO2 forcing from seven general circulation models. Comparing the warmer climate control simulations, variability weakens, neutral state lasting longer, while ac...

The Earth’s climate is rapidly changing at the hands of human activities. There is little doubt about this. There is doubt, however, about how Earth’s inhabitants will respond to this change. By combining models of expected climate change with models that match climates to the distributions of species, ecologists can project scenarios of future biodiversity. These projections are usually rather...

Despite the “gloom and doom” scenarios depicted by most climate change scientists, the warmer world that we are creating can’t be all bad, can it? After all, hundreds of studies have shown that plant productivity is higher when temperatures are warmer and atmospheric carbon dioxide is high. Many models even predict an increase in global plant productivity, which has provided fodder for many to ...

The development rate of parasites and pathogens within vectors typically increases with temperature. Accordingly, transmission intensity is generally assumed to be higher under warmer conditions. However, development is only one component of parasite/pathogen life history and there has been little research exploring the temperature sensitivity of other traits that contribute to transmission int...

Modern global temperature and land cover and projected future temperatures suggest that tropical forest species will be particularly sensitive to global warming. Given a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, fully 75% of the tropical forests present in 2000 will experience mean annual temperatures in 2100 that are greater than the highest mean annual temperature that supports closed-canop...