the purpose of this study is estimation of daily value at risk (var) for total index of tehran stock exchange using parametric, nonparametric and semi-parametric approaches. conditional and unconditional coverage backtesting are used for evaluating the accuracy of calculated var and also to compare the performance of mentioned approaches. in most cases, based on backtesting statistics results, ...

[1] In this study, the performance of inverse threedimensional variational assimilation (I3D-Var) is investigated in terms of dissipation process for an advection-diffusion problem. The performance of I3D-Var becomes poorer with larger diffusion coefficients. However, even for strong dissipation, the cost function during early iterations in the I3D-Var decreases still much faster than it does i...

We study the effects of government spending by using a structural, large dimensional, dynamic factor model. We find that the government spending shock is non-fundamental for the variables commonly used in the structural VAR literature, so that its impulse response functions cannot be consistently estimated by means of a VAR. Government spending raises both consumption and investment, with no ev...

ARCH and GARCH models are widely used to model financial market volatilities in risk management applications. Considering a GARCH model with heavy-tailed innovations, we characterize the limiting distribution of an estimator of the conditional Value-at-Risk (VaR), which corresponds to the extremal quantile of the conditional distribution of the GARCH process. We propose two methods, the normal ...

This paper characterizes the term structure of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall under different econometric approaches including multivariate regime switching, GARCH-in-mean models with student-t errors, two-component GARCH models and a non-parametric bootstrap. We show how to derive the risk measures for each of these models and document large variations in term...

Model Vector Autoregressive (VAR) merupakan salah satu pemodelan dalam statistika yang dapat digunakan untuk data multivariat time series biasa ditemukan bidang keuangan, manajemen, bisnis dan ekonomi. VAR menganalisis secara simultan mendapatkan kesimpulan tepat menjelaskan perilaku hubungan antar variabel endogeneous maupun endegeneous eksogeneous dinamis. Selain itu model juga mengenai selai...

Consider a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of order d: xt = A1xt−1 + . . .+Adxt−d + t, t = 0,±1,±2, . . . , (1) where xt ∈ R is a random vector, Ai ∈ Rp×p, i = 1, . . . , d are fixed coefficient matrices and t is a vector of zero-mean white noise, i.e., E( t) = 0, E( t t ) = Σ and E( t T t+h) = 0, for h 6= 0. We assume that the noise covariance matrix Σ is positive definite with bounded large...