[1] A global high‐resolution (∼40 km) atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM5 T319) is used to investigate the change of tropical cyclone frequency in the North Pacific under global warming. A time slice method is used in which sea surface temperature fields derived from a lower‐ resolution coupled model run under the 20C3M (in which historical greenhouse gases in 20th century were prescr...

We consider a spatial stochastic model for the simulation of tropical cyclone tracks, which has recently been introduced. Cyclone tracks are represented as labeled polygonal lines, which are described by the movement directions, translational speeds, and wind speeds of the cyclones in regular six-hour intervals. In the present paper, we compare return levels for wind speeds of historically obse...

The dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification on the Coriolis parameter was investigated in an idealized hurricane model. By specifying an initial balanced vortex on an f-plane, we observed faster TC development under lower planetary vorticity environment than under higher planetary vorticity environment. The diagnosis of the model outputs indicates that the distinctive evolution char...

[1] A 44-year mean distribution of tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), a measure of the oceanic heat content from the surface to the 26 C-isotherm depth, shows that TCHP is locally high in the western North Pacific (WNP). TCHP varies on interannual time scales and has a relationship with tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The third mode of an empirical orthogonal function analysis of TCHP show...

Best-track and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to study the statistics of multiple cyclone events (MCEs), in which one tropical cyclone (the ‘daughter’) forms to the east of another extant TC (the ‘mother’) during the mother’s lifetime, in the western north Pacific. It is found that approximately 30% of all tropical cyclones become mothers, and that MCEs occur relatively more frequently in t...

Using data obtained from the western Pacific region during “Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008” (TCS08), ONR’s field program, this study proposes to investigate large-scale environmental conditions, mesoscale phenomena, and small-scale convective bursts, as well as their interactions that are responsible for TC formation and intensity changes. Specific objectives include 1) characterizing the inte...

In this paper, we describe offline analysis of Indian Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) data from cyclone Ogni using a suite of radar algorithms as implemented on NEXRAD and the advanced algorithms developed jointly by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and the University of Oklahoma. We demonstrate the applicability of the various algorithms to Indian radar data, the improvement in the qua...

We present results from the sixth stage of a project to build a statistical hurricane model. Previous papers have described our modelling of the tracks, genesis, and lysis of hurricanes. In our track model we have so far employed a normal distribution for the residuals when computing innovations, even though we have demonstrated that their distribution is not normal. Here, we test to see if the...

The specification of tropical cyclone atmospheric forcing for ocean response models is described with emphasis on methods that are currently actively applied in basins rich in insitu, airborne and remotely sensed meteorological data. We emphasize approaches and critical issues addressed in more detail in this workshop’s special session on Tropical Meteorology. Five alternative wind fields devel...

T HE DVORAK TECHNIQUE LEGACY. The Dvorak tropical cyclone (TC) intensity estimation technique has been the primary method of monitoring tropical systems for more than three decades. The technique has likely saved tens of thousands of lives in regions where over one billion people are directly affected by TCs (commonly called hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones). The Dvorak technique’s practical a...