This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive international dataset, we find that interest-rate related variables are usually among the most prominent predict...

I study how growth affects liquidity of global stock exchanges and how liquidity determines cross-sectional returns on those stock exchange index portfolios. I measure portfolio liquidity by turnover ratio computed as value of shares traded over the market capitalization. I obtain data from FIBV, an association of global stock exchanges. In a multiple regression model for turnover ratio, I find...

The regression of stock returns on predictive variables, such as dividend yield, has proven useful in optimal portfolio selection when investment opportunities are timevarying. Conditional versions of factor models impose a restriction on that regression, thereby implying a particular portfolio choice. The study examines several pricing models from a perspective of conditional mean-variance opt...

The results of the previous chapter demonstrate that the serial dependencies within Taiwanese stock returns that are reflected in the significant autocorrelation and nonlinearity test results of Chapter Four are not constant; rather, they shift in direction and magnitude over time, with a number of brief episodes of very strong dependencies accounting for much of the magnitude of the full sampl...

Artificial neural networks are, again, on the rise. The decreasing costs of computing power and the availability of big data together with advancements of neural network theory have made this possible. In this thesis, LSTM (long short-term memory) recurrent neural networks are used in order to perform financial time series forecasting on return data of three stock indices. The indices are S&P 5...

In an economy where agents hold money, the short interest rate determines the trade-off between money holdings and consumption. Building on this idea, we develop a theoretical model that shows the transmission mechanism through which the short rate finds its way to stock-return predictability regressions. We construct a cointegration relation that links share prices and dividends to the short i...

This paper presents an empirical analysis of volatility and contagion across 19 emerging and developed stock markets in the 1990s. First, using an efficient estimate of unconditional stock return volatility we show that contemporaneous return and volatility correlation across stock markets have increased substantially in the 1990s. Second, using simple rolling regressions and goodness of fit me...

We examine institutional investor demand for stocks that are categorized as mispriced according to twelve well-known pricing anomalies. We find that institutional demand prior to anomaly portfolio formation is typically on the wrong side of the anomalies’ implied mispricing. That is, we find increases in institutional ownership for overvalued stocks and decreases in institutional ownership for ...