The Nordic population registers provide a unique possibility to study the demographic behavior of very small population groups and rare events. In this paper, we study the childbearing behavior of Swedish mothers of twins between 1961 and 1999, inclusive. Our most consistent finding is that mothers of twins wait noticeably longer than women with singletons before they have another child. This a...

In this paper, we investigate extreme events in high frequency, multivariate FX returns within a purposely built framework. We generalize univariate tests and concepts to multidimensional settings and employ these novel techniques for parametric and nonparametric analysis. In particular, we investigate and quantify the co-dependence of cross-sectional and intertemporal extreme events. We find e...

In world politics the most important events are often rare events. Secession is a rare and important event. Secession of the center; when the dominant region of a country abandons its peripheries, is even rarer. But as the transformation of the Soviet Union into Russia and a collection of independent states demonstrates, it is an important kind of development. In this paper we illustrate the am...

Estimation of the occurrence of extreme events actually is that of risk premiums interest in actuarial Sciences, Insurance and Finance. Heavy-tailed distributions are used to model large claims and losses. In this paper we deal with the empirical estimation of the distortion risk premiums for heavy tailed losses by using the extreme value statistics. This approach can produce a potential bias i...

Extreme events are significant determinants of the character and evolution of many natural and human systems. When extreme events occur at the interface between natural and human systems, they are often called "disasters." Here, we use a systemic, contextual view of disasters to construct a framework for organizing research and policy. Within this framework, reduction of vulnerability is the or...

To the Editor:—The article of Lienhart et al. 1 must be applauded. Because of the authors’ careful and high-quality methodology, this work—begun in 1996 and covering an entire nation—was able to estimate anesthesia-related mortality in France. This work confirms the critical role of cardiac disease, aging, emergency care and hemorrhage in mortality related to anesthesia. Perhaps more importantl...

In this paper we present our ideas for conducting a cost benefit analysis by using three different methods: scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation. Then we introduce our case study and examine these methods in a real world situation. We show how these tools can be used and what the results are for each of them. Our aim is to conduct a comparison of these different probabilistic method...

We present a detailed model of the integrated power system coupled to hydrodynamics that allows us to study global sensitivities in the All-Electric Ship. A novel element of our formulation is the stochastic modeling of the coupled system to account for uncertainty in the parameters or operating conditions. This new computational framework is applied to a model of the DDG51 destroyer that invol...

This short note is intended as a “Letter to the Editor” Perspective in order that it serves as a contribution, in view of reaching the physics community caring about rare events and scaling laws and unexpected findings, on a domain of wide interest: sport and money. It is apparent from the data reported and discussed below that the scarcity of such data does not allow to recommend a complex ela...

We decompose volatility of a stock market index both in time and scale using wavelet filters and design a probabilistic indicator for volatilities, analogous to the Richter scale in geophysics. The peakover-threshold method is used to fit the generalized Pareto probability distribution for the extreme values in the realized variances of wavelet coefficients. The indicator is computed for the da...