Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) for financial portfolios is a staggering task in financial risk management. The turmoil in financial markets as observed since September 2008 called for more complex VaR models, as ”standard” VaR approaches failed to anticipate the collective market movements faced during the financial crisis. Hence, recent research on portfolio management mainly focussed on mode...

This paper compares the forecasting performance of the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model with the commonly adopted GARCH model. Two major stock indices, FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225, are studies using the daily range data and daily close price data over the period 1990 to 2000. Our results suggest that improvements of the overall estimation are achieved when the CARR models are used. Mor...

to achieve the optimal model for capital asset pricing has always been a central issue in studies of the financial field. in this study we consider fama and french three-factor model augmented by the pastor and stambaugh (2003) liquidity risk factor. unlike most previous studies in this model, stock level beta is allowed to vary with firm-level size and book-to-market value. to verify the above...

In this paper, we quantify market risk at an intraday time horizon using normal GARCH, Student GARCH, RiskMetrics and high-frequency duration (Log-ACD) models set in the framework of the conditional VaR methodology. Because of the small time horizon of the intraday returns (15 and 30 minute returns in this paper), an evaluation of intraday market risk can be useful to market participants (trade...

This study is the first to simultaneously analyze the relation between aggregate stock market returns and cash flows of the various investor groups that constitute the entire stock market in the United States. We examine the relation between investor flows and stock market returns over a long time period from 1952 to 2004, and also examine the relation between investor flows and longer-term sto...

This paper has provided "out of sample" evidence of stock returns predictability in Tehran Stock Exchange. 68 qualified companies over the period from 2002 to 2015 were selected and for five different "forms of returns", five superior predictive models have been designed by applying "General to specific" approach of modeling technique. Then "out of sample" analysis, based on rolling regressions...

one of the capital market financial instruments, especially in islamic countries, is sukuk or islamic securities. sukuk is based on islamic law. different types of sukuk are available for different economic situations of countries and different investors. one type of sukuk is mozare'e which is the subject of this research. to do this, we have used financial indices of crops to compare moza...