In 1996 Alan Greenspan warned that stock prices were \unduly escalated" and re ected \irrational exuberance". In this paper we describe an economy that can support a prolonged surge of asset prices, accompanied by a sharp increase of volatility. We study an equilibrium model where some agents are risk averse while others have loss averse preferences over wealth, according to prospect theory. We...

Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model th...

The increasing role of software for developing products and services requires that organizations align their software-related activities with high-level business goals. In practice, this alignment is very difficult and only little systematic support is available. GQM+Strategies is a method that aims at aligning organizational goals, strategies, and measurements at all levels of an organization ...

GQM+Strategies is an approach that aligns the business goals at each level of an organization to strategies to achieve overall business goals and assesses the achievement of such goals. Strategies are extracted from business goals based on rationales (contexts and assumptions). Using the proposed approach, which refines the GQM+Strategies model by extracting rationales based on the analysis of ...

Abstract In this paper, we introduce new techniques how to control the maximum drawdown (MDD). One can view the maximum drawdown as a contingent claim, and price and hedge it accordingly as a derivative contract. Trading drawdown contracts or replicating them by hedging would directly address the concerns of portfolio managers who would like to insure the market drops. Similar contracts can be ...

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), wherein the number of species and higher taxa peaks in the tropics and decreases toward the poles, is the best-documented large-scale diversity pattern on Earth, but hypotheses explaining the standard LDG must also account for rare "contrarian" taxa that show diversity maxima outside of the tropics. For marine bivalves, one of the few groups that provid...