In this paper we present an account of a 3-year research project that is aimed at dynamically simulating urban and regional populations in Britain. In the context of this project we are using data from the 1991 UK Census Small Area Statistics (SAS) and the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), in order to dynamically simulate the entire population of Britain into 2021 at the small area level. ...

In this paper the calibration of a traffic microsimulation model based on speed-density relationships is presented. Hypothesis test was applied in the calibration process to measure the closeness between empirical data and simulation outputs and determine whether the difference between (observed and simulated) speeddensity relationships was statistically significant. Statistical regressions bet...

Microsimulations focus on modeling routine activities of individuals and have been used for modeling and planning urban systems like transportation, energy demand, and epidemiology. On the other hand, planning for emergency situations (e.g., disasters) needs to account for human behavior which is not routine or pre-planned but depends upon the current situation like the amount of physical damag...

Stochastic behavior of stock returns is very important for investors and policy makers in the stock market. In this paper, the stochastic behavior of the return index of Tehran Stock Exchange (TEDPIX) is examined using unobserved component Markov switching model (UC-MS) for the 3/27/2010 until 8/3/2015 period. In this model, stock returns are decomposed into two components; a permanent componen...

in this paper, an interactive model for individual normal behaviour of drivers is presented in which the mutual effect of vehicles has been incorporated. temporal features obtained from vehicles tracking and their motion history is utilized for generating a model of normal behaviour. because of non-stationarity of behaviour, hidden markov model has been used for interactive model. this model ha...

German demographic or educational projections are conventionally based on macrosimulations. Macrosimulation models use average values of the simulation parameters to compute the updating process. Additionally, the proportions of educational graduate rates stay constant in these models. In this paper I introduce a discrete event microsimulation model which is designed to project the graduate rat...

We propose an hybrid microsimulation and agent-based model of mobility integrating migration and residential mobility. We tested it on the evolution of the population of the Cantal, a French “département” with 150,000 inhabitants. We calibrated it using various data sources from 1990 to 2006, and tested its predictions on other data of the same period and on the period 20072012. The spatial het...