Using a competitive two-country two-commodity monetary model with optimizing agents in which persistent unemployment arises, this paper examines the effects of trade restrictions on consumption and employment in the two countries. When facing unemployment, a country tends to impose an import restriction so that domestic firms will increase production and raise employment. However, this policy i...

It is commonly assumed that short-term price movements follow a random walk and cannot be predicted. However, in this project we predict next-second price movements in the euro-dollar foreign exchange market by using depth as a feature. We show that if there is a sufficient imbalance in depth, an accurate prediction can be made. Further, we train and test a Markov Model to demonstrate that this...

We study the impact of monetary policy on supply bank credit when lending is denominated in foreign currencies. Accessing a comprehensive supervisory dataset from Hungary, we find that currency less sensitive to changes domestic conditions than equivalent currency. Changes similarly affect more Hence banks lend multiple currencies channel weakened and international channels become operational. ...

At the end of 1998, the staff of the Federal Reserve Board introduced a new set of indexes of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar.1 The staff made the changeover, from indexes that had been used since the late 1970s, for two reasons. First, five of the ten currencies in the staff’s previous main index of the dollar’s foreign exchange value were about to be replaced by a single new cur...

We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure of interest rates and exchange rates. Estimating affine (multi-currency) term structure models reveals ...

This paper focuses on modeling foreign exchange return behavior that would result in more accurate currency options pricing. These alternative approaches namely, implied volatility model (IVM), realized volatility model (RVM) and GARCH (1,1) volatility model (GVM) are used in this study. The results, in general suggest that RVM outperforms both IVM and GVM in pricing currency options. In-sample...

Currency carry trades exploiting violations of uncovered interest rate parity in G10 currencies deliver significant excess returns with annualized Sharpe equal to or greater than those of equity market factors (19902012). Using data on out-of-the-money foreign exchange options, I compute returns to crash-hedged portfolios and demonstrate that the high returns to carry trades are not due to peso...

This paper analyzes the relationship between currency price changes and their expectations. Currency price change expectations are derived with the help of different order flow measures, from the trading behavior of investors on OANDA FXTrade, which is an internet trading platform in the foreign exchange market. We investigate whether forecasts of intra-day price changes on different sampling f...

Using a competitive two-country two-commodity monetary model with optimizing agents in which persistent unemployment arises, this paper examines the effects of trade restrictions on consumption and employment in the two countries. When facing unemployment, a country tends to impose an import restriction so that domestic firms will increase production and raise employment. However, this policy i...

Power spectrum densities for the number of tick quotes per minute (market activity) on three currency markets (USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and JPY/EUR) for periods from January 1999 to December 2000 are analyzed. We find some peaks on the power spectrum densities at a few minutes. We develop the double-threshold agent model and confirm that stochastic resonance occurs for the market activity of this mode...