Article history: Received 17 January 2011 Received in revised form 3 June 2011 Accepted 6 June 2011 Available online 8 July 2011 We investigate the relative impact of internal Delphi process factors – including panelists' degree of confidence, expertise, majority/minority positioning – and an external factor, richness of feedback – on opinion change and subsequent accuracy of judgmental forecas...

Cross-impact analysis is a method for revising estimated probabilities of future events in terms of estimated interactions among those events. This Report presents anelementary cross-impact model where the cross-impacts are formulated as relativeprobabilities. Conditions are derived for the consistency of the matrix of relative probabilities of n events. An extension also provides a nec...

A hierarchical framework is proposed to address the issues of modeling different type of words in keyword spotting (KWS). Keyword models are built at various levels according to the availability of training set resources for each individual word. The proposed approach improves the performance of KWS even when no training speech is available for the keywords. It also suggests an easier way to co...

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0950-5849/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier B.V. A doi:10.1016/j.infsof.2010.12.002 ⇑ Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Iden). Context: The assumption of the presented work is that the ability of system developers and IT operations personnel to cooperate effectively in system development projects has great impact on the quality of the final system solution, as well as on ...

Abstract: Modern technology provides a great amount of information. But for computer monitoring systems or computer control systems, in order to have the situation in hand, we need to reduce the number of variables to one or two parameters, which express the quality and/or security of the whole system. In this paper the authors introduce the system parameter fusion principle put forward by the ...

The Delphi protocol is applied when a community of experts is required to reach a consensus and to deliver an answer. In these cases, consensus stands for reaching an agreement among the experts about what the answer should be. This consensus reaching problem has been already considered in the literature, though its automatisation remains as a challenge. Intuitively, the experts should dialogue...

BACKGROUND Assessing the accuracy of influenza epidemic periods determined by statistical models is important to improve the performance of algorithms used in real-time syndromic surveillance systems. This is a difficult problem to address in the absence of a reliable gold standard. The objective of this study is to establish an expert-based determination of the start and the end of influenza e...

The Delphi protocol is applied when a community of experts is required to reach a consensus and to deliver an answer. In these cases, consensus stands for reaching an agreement among the experts about what the answer should be. This consensus reaching problem has been already considered in the literature, though its automatisation remains as a challenge. Intuitively, the experts should dialogue...